New polling suggests Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is best poised to challenge Governor Hochul in next year’s gubernatorial election. Despite Ms. Stefanik’s conservative record and her close relationship with President Trump, she is within striking distance of defeating Ms. Hochul to become the first Republican governor of New York in more than two decades. 

According to the poll from the firm GrayHouse, Ms. Hochul leads Ms. Stefanik by a mere six points — 46 percent to 40 percent — with 14 percent of voters undecided. 

Of the Republican candidates tested by GrayHouse, Ms. Stefanik fares the best against the incumbent governor. Congressman Mike Lawler trails Ms. Hochul by seven points, while Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman trails by eight points. 

In the Republican primary, Ms. Stefanik would have a commanding lead over her two major competitors. Mr. Lawler, a Rockland County-area congressman, has been telling allies that he will likely run for governor next year. Mr. Blakeman told Politico that he was focused on his job leading Nassau County, though has left the door open to potentially running. 

In the GOP primary, Ms. Stefanik would take 44 percent of the vote, compared to Mr. Lawler who wins just seven percent and Mr. Blakeman who carries a mere five percent. 

Ms. Stefanik’s spokesman, Alex DeGrasse, wrote on X that the GrayHouse poll shows “what everyone knows.”

“This independent poll shows what everyone knows: there is no question that the single most popular Republican in NY after President Trump is Elise Stefanik,” Mr. DeGrasse writes. “If she decides to run, it’s lights out in the primary and very competitive in the general, where she can certainly defeat Kathy Hochul.”

When it was first reported that Ms. Stefanik was considering a run for governor next year, many seemed thrilled. The chairman of the state’s Conservative Party — a smaller, more hardline offshoot of the GOP — Jerry Kassar, told the Sun at the time that he and his members are excited about a potential candidacy from Ms. Stefanik. 

“I can say in all sincerity … we very much welcome her entry,” Mr. Kassar says. “We are very pleased to hear she is looking to consider this run”

It is unclear even if Ms. Hochul will be her party’s nominee for governor in 2026. Lieutenant governor Antonio Delgado — who was tapped Ms. Hochul to be her running mate in the 2022 election — has said he is considering a run against his boss next year. Congressman Ritchie Torres, similarly, has hinted at a run. 

Mr. Torres, who has represented the South Bronx in Congress for four years, launched a listening tour after the 2024 election to lambast New York state and New York City Democrats for what he sees as ineffective leadership on everything from congestion pricing to the cost of living to crime. 

“We have a leadership crisis in America, and nowhere is a leadership crisis more profound than in New York City and in New York State under the failed governance of Kathy Hochul,” Mr. Torres told NY1 last year.

The congressman said his governor has “been ineffective in her handling of congestion pricing, managing to outrage both supporters and opponents of congestion pricing. 

“I have lost confidence and I blame the failed governance of New York State and New York City for Donald Trump’s progress in New York,” he added. 

According to the same GrayHouse poll that finds Ms. Stefanik to be a strong GOP candidate, Ms. Hochul has far from a dominant lead in the Democratic primary. The governor wins only 24 percent of the vote in that primary, compared to Mr. Torres who takes seven percent and Mr. Delgado who wins six percent. The same poll shows 55 percent of voters being undecided in that race.