Republicans look set to send at least one New York City representative to Congress for the next decade, as the newly enacted map for the 11th District appears to favor the GOP by a wide margin.

The seat had been seen as a likely pickup for Democrats under the state’s redistricting plan first enacted by the Democrat-led legislature. That map was struck down by New York’s highest court. The enacted version, based upon the work of a court-appointed nonpartisan special master, Jonathan Cervas, looks to put the seat in the hands of Republicans.

The Democrat maps were found to be unconstitutional by “all three levels of the New York courts,” according to the court order released early Saturday, which argued that the enacted versions are “almost perfectly neutral.” 

The 11th has been a swing district for the past few cycles. Representative Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican, now holds the seat after defeating Democrat Max Rose, who took it from Republican Dan Donovan.

The new district sprawls across Staten Island and into the southeastern corner of Brooklyn, consolidating much of Bath Beach, Bensonhurst, and Bay Ridge with all of Richmond County.

Demographically, the district is majority white with significant Asian, black and Latino minorities. There is also a significant Orthodox Jewish population, particularly in the southern Brooklyn portion of the district.

Dominated by Staten Island, the 11th will also be by far the least densely populated of any of New York City’s congressional districts.

In the 2020 presidential election, district voters backed President Trump by a 54 percent to 44 percent margin, and FiveThirtyEight is among the outlets predicting the district will be delivering similar results for the foreseeable future.

Another authority on the subject, Dave’s Redistricting, gives the new district a slight edge to Democrats, 52 percent to 46 percent.

The Staten Island borough president, Vito Fossella, told the Sun that “it’s pretty obvious that the current lines are much more favorable to” Ms. Malliotakis. The Republican also said the new map is what’s best for the people of the district.

“We’ve always maintained that we want Staten Island to have the strongest voice possible in the House of Representatives and the initial district that came forward several months ago would have diluted that voice,” he said.

Ms. Malliotakis appears to be content with the new lines: “While I’m saddened that parts of Gravesend have been excluded, I’m happy that the majority of the district remains the same,” she said. 

Mr. Rose has not responded to a request for comment or issued a statement on the court decision regarding the electoral map.

Another Democratic congressional candidate, Brittany Ramos DeBarros, contests that the district isn’t as safe for Republicans as most seem to think that it is. Rather, she argues, it is a district seeking change and better representation in the shadow of other city districts.

“We launched our campaign over a year ago knowing that our communities are hungry for real change,” Ms. Ramos DeBarros told the Sun. “We are the only campaign with the diverse, people-powered coalition it will take to win here, regardless of redistricting.”

Democrats in the district are likely to use the recently leaked Supreme Court draft decision signaling that Roe v. Wade could be overturned as a wedge issue in the congressional race.

Ms. Malliotakis has been criticized for voting against the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would have codified the protections of Roe v. Wade into state law. Ms. Malliotakis claims she stood with “the overwhelming majority of New Yorkers” in opposing an expansion of abortion access. 

Mr. Fossella says the issues that will be most important in this race remain those facing Staten Islanders, who will cast the overwhelming majority of the votes.

“I still believe that the majority of people around here are fiscally conservatice, strongly patriotic, and support funding the police rather than defunding the police,” he said.