The Poisoned Chalice
Deutsche Bank says the market is reassessing the structural attractiveness of the dollar.

âUneasy lies the head that wears a crown,â Henry IV lamented, per Shakespeare. The same can be said, lately of âKing Dollar.â That moniker is a shorthand for the greenbackâs role as the worldâs leading reserve currency. Yet President Trumpâs tariffs are sparking a new wave of doubts over the dollarâs reign. âThe mighty dollar,â Marketwatch warns, âis falling apart,â stirring echoes of the âNixon shockâ in 1971 when America left the gold exchange standard.
Cutting the dollarâs ties to gold ushered in âstagflationâ and the fiat money era. Yet Nixonâs dĂ©marche did not dethrone King Dollar, in part due to Americaâs strong economy. Nixonâs Treasury secretary, John Connally, told our allies that the dollar is âour currency, but itâs your problem.â Can dollar dominance, though, survive today what the press is calling a âTrump shockâ? Would America be better off without the burden of the reserve currency crown?
The urgency of these questions is underscored by analysts like Deutsche Bankâs George Saravelos, who reckons âthe market is re-assessing the structural attractiveness of the dollarâ as the âglobal reserve currency.â He speaks of âa process of rapid de-dollarisation.â Bannockburn Global Forexâs Marc Chandler cautions that âWhat we are going through now is worse than when former President Nixon took us off the gold standard in August 1971.â
The âbiggest damage right now is to the U.S. brand,â Mr. Chandler says, comparing President Trumpâs moves on tariffs to the switch in 1985 to âNew Cokeâ from the classic Coca-Cola formula, sparking what Marketwatch calls âconsumer backlash.â Mr. Chandler reports that there âis talk of a capital strike against the U.S., with many people suggesting thereâs pressure from foreign investors selling American assets.â
That trend isnât confined to the worldâs regard for the dollar, if reports of uncertainty in the debt markets are any guide. The Times is among those reporting that âturmoil in bond marketsâ is a marker of the âshaken faithâ in the âpreviously unimpeachable solidity of U.S. government debt.â Yet this ignores how FDR in 1934 defaulted on Americaâs debt, devaluing the dollar by some 59 percent. âA calculated breach of contract,â the Financial Times said.
That episode is a reminder that questions of debt and money are inseparable. Thatâs why Americaâs debt crisis today â signaled by the jitters over Americaâs creditworthiness â is intertwined with the monetary crisis that Nixon triggered in 1971. And while the dollarâs reserve status has been described as an âexorbitant privilege,â enabling America to consume more than it produces, it has also let Uncle Sam run up an unsustainable national debt.
For this reason, monetary sage James Grant has described the dollarâs reserve currency status as a âpoisoned chalice,â with the debasement of the greenback as a symptom of national profligacy. When Nixon abandoned the Bretton Woods system, the dollar was convertible by law into gold at the rate of a 35th of an ounce. Disavowing that pledge sent the dollarâs value plummeting. In todayâs trading the dollar fetches less than a 3200th of a gold ounce.
A Wall Street Journal editorial after the âNixon shockâ decried Americaâs âfailures,â including the âfiscal and monetary excessesâ of the 1960s. The Journal wondered if any âone nation should be in a position, through control over a currency that is used as a reserve unit, to put other nations in a bind through mismanagement of that currency.â Today, the dollarâs plunging gold value again belies Americaâs pretensions to monetary leadership under âKing Dollar.â