Three Major Addresses on Ukraine War Fail To Map How It Ends

On the eve of the first Ukraine war anniversary, three top players — revanchist Russia, Communist China, and America — publicly planted flags on their positions Tuesday. President Biden’s speech was the most impressive of the three, even as like those of his adversaries, it lacked strategic depth. In a long speech at Moscow, President Putin blamed the West for his own invasion of Ukraine and announced a suspension of an arms treaty that he has been violating for years, New Start. At Beijing, the foreign minister, Qin Gang, offered “Chinese wisdom” toward a settlement in Ukraine and warned against a widened world war. At the same time, speaking at Warsaw a day after visiting Kyiv, Mr. Biden delivered to an arena-size crowd one of the clearest, most eloquent speeches of his political career. Audiences at home would recognize the “us-against-them” tone that has marked the president’s long political career, only now it was not Democrats versus Republicans but rather the world’s democracies battling against autocrats. At one point Mr. Biden even noted that the top leaders of both American political parties are united in support of Ukraine. Indicating that America is on the correct path, he portrayed NATO as united and the European-American alliance as strengthened, and predicted that liberty will win out. Mr. Putin “thought autocrats like him are tough and democracies are soft,” Mr. Biden said. Yet, after a yearlong war, “the democracies of the world have become stronger, not weaker, but the autocracies of the world have become weaker not stronger.”While endlessly praising Ukraine’s resilience and sacrifice, Mr. Biden also identified Warsaw as one of Europe’s most dedicated defenders of democracies in the fight. “Thank you, Poland. Thank you, thank you, thank you for all you’re doing,” is how he ended his speech. That is a switch from last March, when Mr. Biden also spoke about democracies at Warsaw shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. Earlier that year the European Union rebuked Poland’s president for allegedly setting back Poland’s institutions, and Democrats in Washington cast President Duda as a Trump-like enemy of democracies. “Biden Sends Subtle Message to Polish Leaders on Democracy” was the headline on the Associated Press coverage of that March 2022 speech. A year earlier Mr. Biden’s former boss, President Obama, characterized Poland’s Mr. Duda and Hungary’s Viktor Orban as “essentially authoritarian.”Such statements are rooted in the growing politicization of America’s national security. Part of Mr. Obama’s 2008 election victory was rooted in his adamant opposition to the muscular policies of his predecessor, President George W. Bush. He went on to erase any remnants of those policies. President Trump then erased Mr. Obama’s policies. Those returned, however, when Mr. Biden repealed even the most successful initiatives of Mr. Trump. If his Warsaw speech and Kyiv visit signal a repeal of a hyperpartisan foreign policy, Mr. Biden may have made a major stride forward. Yet, Tuesday’s address lacked even a hint on how the battle over Ukraine can be won, and Washington is yet to articulate a realistic endgame to the war. As far as Mr. Putin is concerned, a war of attrition at the heart of Europe would be just fine. He believes the West will soon tire of Ukraine and move on to other crises. “The elites of the West do not hide their purpose,” he said in his televised speech at the Kremlin. “But they also cannot fail to realize that it is impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield.”Using his true and tried bogeymen — “Nazi” Kyiv leadership, Westerners out to destroy Russia, evil NATO — Mr. Putin seemed to relish the prospect of globalizing his Ukraine adventure. “They intend to transform a local conflict into a phase of global confrontation,” Mr. Putin said. “This is exactly how we understand it all and we will react accordingly, because in this case we are talking about the existence of our country.”Yet, like his American adversary, Mr. Putin is yet to articulate a clear path to victory. Also, Moscow’s top ally, Beijing, appears much less enthusiastic than Mr. Putin about an all out-confrontation with the West. “China is deeply worried about the escalation of the situation and even the possibility of it going out of control,” Mr. Qin said Tuesday. Promising to promote peace talks to end the Ukraine crisis, Mr. Qin called for observers to “stop adding fuel to the fire, stop shifting blame to China, and stop hyping up the discourse of Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” Yet, if Beijing really has a roadmap to Ukraine peace, it is yet to show it. Mr. Putin has no qualms about throwing more Russian cannon fodder to an endless battle over Ukraine, and Mr. Xi wouldn’t mind if America and its allies use their entire arsenal in a European war while his military looks set to eat Taiwan alive.That leaves Mr. Biden. While well-delivered, his us-against-them rhetoric must soon be complemented with a clear articulation of what Ukraine victory would look like and how America plans to get there.

Three Major Addresses on Ukraine War Fail To Map How It Ends

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