A country of 2.6 million people tucked between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova will hold its first European summit on June 1 while feeling pressure from Russian troops on its border and itching to join the European Union. 

President Sandu said last week she wants to join the 27-member bloc “as soon as possible.” She called EU membership the only guarantee her country will avoid becoming Russia’s next target. Never mind that the EU is a non-military grouping.

Moldova has been a Russian target since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. A fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Mathieu Droin, tells the Sun that if Moldova were to enter the EU, it would be “riskier” for Russia to attack.

“The hazardous period will therefore be the negotiations phase, when Moldova is not yet formally protected by the EU, and Russia is likely to attempt to derail the process,” Mr. Droin says.

About 75,000 demonstrators gathered at Moldova’s capital, Chisinau, on Sunday to support the country’s admission into the European Union.

“We don’t want to be on the outskirts of Europe anymore,” Ms. Santu said during the rally. “We came to say loudly, confidently, and proudly that Moldovans are Europeans.” 

Ms. Santu also said her country does not want to be “blackmailed” by Russia. In February, she accused the Kremlin of plotting to “overthrow the constitutional order” in an attempt to boycott admission into the European Union.

Moldova officially applied for EU membership on March 3, 2022, a week after Russia invaded Ukraine. In June 2022, Moldova, together with Ukraine and Georgia, became an official candidate for the European group. Ms. Santu said she expects to become a member by 2030. 

To do so, Moldova would first need to further develop its economy, Mr. Droin says. In addition, if the country receives an accelerated process to join the European Union, it would be “ill-received” by other countries that are also in the process, he adds.

Yet, Moldova has a “very good chance” of making it into the European Union in the next 10 years because it’s a small country, a Brussels-based political consultant, Julien Hoez, tells the Sun. The process could take less time, he says, but depends on Moldova’s capacity to resolve issues such as the situation in Transnistria, the Moldovan region where about 1,500 Russian troops are stationed.

Moldova will host the second summit of the European Political Community on June 1, giving the small Eastern European country a place on the international stage. The EPC was created in 2022 as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In October, the community held its first conference in Prague. 

Moldova will show its commitment to Europe in the next EPC summit, Ms. Sandu said in an article for the Economist. “Peace, security, energy resilience, and connectivity will be on the agenda when I meet Europe’s heads of state and government,” Ms. Sandu said. She added that it will be an “opportunity” to discuss shared challenges.

“This is a tall order for Moldova but also an occasion to receive European-wide support and attention,” Mr. Droin said. The EPC’s participants include all 27 EU members and other European countries such as Turkey, Armenia, and Georgia. 

A sliver of Moldova’s territory, Transnistria, was the home of a Russian military station during the Cold War. It declared itself a Soviet republic in 1990. After the Soviet Union collapsed and Moldova gained its independence in 1991, Russia sent a “peacekeeping force” into Transnistria to back pro-Moscow separatists. War with Moldovan forces took place, resulting in about a thousand deaths. The conflict ended in 1992.

Home to 450,000 people, Transnistria is now an unrecognized breakaway state. Internationally, it is recognized as part of Moldova. The Moldovan army is no match for some 1,500 Russian troops that remain in the region, and Chisinau has no control over them. 

While every country near Russia is in danger, it is unlikely that Russia will invade Moldova, Mr. Hoez says. Mr. Putin has to manage Ukraine, he says, where most of his soldiers are deployed. In addition, Mr. Hoez believes the soldiers currently placed in Transnistria are incapable of putting up a fight against Moldova.

Russia’s assault on Moldova is a “hybrid” aimed to “destabilize” and force the country back into Moscow’s orbit, Ms. Sandu said. Yet, by moving closer to the European Union and reforming institutions, Chisinau is fighting against the threats. 

“The appeal of democracy would triumph over the oppression of authoritarianism,” Ms. Sandu said while adding that the decision to apply to join the bloc was a clear choice. “Moldova, a future EU member, is standing firm, strong, and confident.”