Taiwan’s allies in Latin America, in a repeat of the Cold War’s domino effect, are slowly falling, as Honduras turns to Communist China just as President Tsai Ing-wen is planning a trip to the hemisphere, likely to include a meeting with Speaker McCarthy.   

As Beijing utilizes its economic heft in the region, President Xiomara Castro of Honduras announced last week that she would launch a process of establishing diplomatic relations with Communist China. The move will result in a formal ending of the country’s ties with Taiwan.

If the process goes through, Taiwan would maintain diplomatic ties with only 13 countries, most of them small and developing. 

“I have instructed Chancellor Eduardo Reina to manage the opening of official relations with the People’s Republic of China, as a sign of my determination to comply with the Government Plan and expand the borders freely in concert with the nations of the world,” Ms. Castro tweeted. 

Her announcement comes on the eve of Ms. Tsai’s trip to Central America, expected in early April. Much to Beijing’s chagrin, she is scheduled to make a Washington stopover, where she plans to meet with Mr. McCarthy. In the past, Chinese officials have reacted angrily to Taiwanese meetings with American officials, including Speaker Pelosi’s visit to the free island.   

Taipei greatly benefits from its diplomatic allies, as they “advocate its inclusion in multilateral fora,” the director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ryan Berg, told the Sun. Therefore, he added, Communist China is “making a full frontal effort at undermining Taiwan’s relationships in the Western Hemisphere.”

Taiwan’s foreign ministry expressed “serious concerns” over Tegucigalpa’s announcement and urged Honduras to reconsider the decision, rather than “fall into China’s trap.” Communist China’s only goal is to “shrink our country’s international space,” the Taipei ministry said in a statement. “It has no sincere intentions to cooperate for the good of the Honduran people.”

As Beijing refuses to have relationships with active Taiwan supporters, Honduras is yet to get the Chinese loans, credit, and investments that other Latin American countries have received. 

“We have to look at things very pragmatically and seek the best benefit for the Honduran people,” Mr. Reina told Honduran TV, adding that the country is “up to its neck” in financial challenges. “Honduras’ needs are enormous, and we haven’t seen that answer from Taiwan,” he added.

Two weeks ago, Ms. Castro announced that, as part of her  plan to construct three dams, Beijing would assist Honduras in the building of a new hydroelectric dam. In 2021, Communist China invested $300 million in the first dam in eastern Honduras. 

At the same time, the president of the Federal States of Micronesia, David Panuelo, accused Beijing of being involved in “political welfare” and bribing officials there. According to a letter published on March 9, Communist China “is seeking to ensure” that in the event of a war between Beijing and Taipei the Federal States of Micronesia “are aligned” with Communist China instead of America, or “at worst, that it chooses to abstain altogether.”

Communist China’s foreign ministry welcomed Ms. Castro’s  announcement and said it was looking forward to developing “friendly and cooperative relations” with Honduras. 

That 181 countries have established ties with Communist China based on the one-China principle shows that it’s the correct choice, which is the “trend of the times,” Communist China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Wang Wenbin, said during a news conference in Beijing. 

Under the promise of receiving projects and loans, eight countries  recognized Communist China since 2016 and severed ties with Taiwan. Those include Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic. 

One of the final dominoes, Paraguay, is also teetering. Its relations with Taiwan are at stake in the country’s April 30 presidential elections. The opposition’s presidential candidate, Efrain Alegre of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party, has vowed to break away from Taiwan if elected and to tighten relations with Beijing. 

In 2022, Paraguay’s president, Abdo Benitez, told the Financial Times that the country’s inability to gain access to Chinese markets has had a direct impact on export producers. Paraguay has a gross domestic product of $39 billion, of which 30 percent comes from agriculture.

Communist China has already established relations with several South American countries, including Argentina, Chile, and Brazil. According to the Economist, by 2021 Communist China had accounted for 18 percent of Latin American trade. Beijing’s economy could grow by 5.7 percent by the end of this year, according to Morgan Stanley.