Trump and DeSantis Are Tied in Florida: Poll

A new survey of GOP primary voters in Florida finds that President Trump and Governor DeSantis are tied in the horse race in the two candidates’ mutual home state.A poll from Breakthrough Research and SachsMedia found that Messrs. Trump and DeSantis both enjoyed 41 percent support among primary voters in Florida.This topline could be read as a positive for Mr. DeSantis because it’s consistent with other recent polls that show him and Mr. Trump roughly tied in Florida.A Victory Insights poll from May 25 found that Messrs. DeSantis and Trump were neck and neck at 40 percent and 39 percent support in the state. This suggests that Mr. Trump’s indictment polling bump didn’t make it to Florida.These results might be seen as a warning sign for Mr. DeSantis, as it’s been proven that candidates perform better in their home states and because Mr. DeSantis is running on his record as governor of Florida.There are a few complications, though. The first is that, despite Mr. Trump’s longtime ties to New York, he is now a Floridian, meaning it is technically his home state as well.The second is that Mr. DeSantis actually leads Mr. Trump when respondents’ first and second choices of candidates are taken into account. According to the survey, Mr. DeSantis is the second choice of 30 percent of the respondents, while Mr. Trump is the second choice of 13 percent.When a respondent’s first and second choices are added together, Mr. DeSantis enjoys 71 percent support, and Mr. Trump enjoys 57 percent support, suggesting that there is considerable overlap in their bases of support.The problem for Mr. DeSantis is that the second choice of the many voters who support Mr. Trump only matters if the former president drops out of the race, which he has shown no intention of doing, despite two criminal indictments.The other issue in the race is that Florida is a winner-take-all primary, which means that, even if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in a primary, the candidate who wins the plurality is awarded the delegates from the state.While winner-take-all systems have been credited for paving Mr. Trump’s path to the nomination in 2016, in this instance it could stand to benefit either candidate, should either edge out even a small lead over the other.The Florida primary comes in the middle of the primary season as well, on March 19, meaning it is likely that some candidates will have dropped out and thrown their support behind one of the top contenders by that point.

Trump and DeSantis Are Tied in Florida: Poll

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