Trump Dominates GOP Field, DeSantis Has Most To Gain: Poll

While polls consistently find President Trump as the early favorite in the 2024 GOP presidential primary, a new survey from CBS News suggests that Mr. Trump likely has both the highest ceiling for support and the biggest base in the field. The poll also shines light on what primary voters are looking for in a candidate.Conducted by YouGov for CBS News, the poll found that 58 percent of Republican primary voters said they were planning to vote for Mr. Trump while 22 percent said they planned to vote for Governor DeSantis. Vice President Pence was a distant third at 5 percent.The poll also asked respondents what candidates they were not currently planning to vote for but were considering. An additional 18 percent of respondents said they were considering Mr. Trump, while 30 percent of respondents said they were considering Mr. DeSantis.Looking at the ceiling of support for candidates — the portion of voters who say they will support a candidate combined with the portion of voters who say they are considering supporting a candidate — the numbers pan out favorably for Mr. Trump.The survey found Mr. Trump has a ceiling of support of 76 percent in the GOP primary, whereas Mr. DeSantis has a ceiling of support of about 52 percent. Mr. Pence was once again at a distant third place with a ceiling of about 20 percent support.These findings also appear to confirm that, contrary to what has become conventional wisdom, Mr. Trump might actually expand his lead as the primary field winnows down. While Mr. DeSantis has the largest portion of voters considering him as a candidate, he remains less popular than Mr. Trump.The poll also appears to confirm that the vast majority, 73 percent, of Republican primary voters were still considering Mr. Trump as a candidate. In contrast, only 27 percent of respondents were not considering voting for Mr. Trump.One complication is that the poll did not ask respondents to rank their choice for president in the primary, meaning it’s unclear how support would shift as candidates dropped out of the race. It also had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percent, which is relatively high.For those voters supporting Mr. Trump, the poll asked a series of questions as to why respondents are planning to vote for him in the primary.The most popular reasons for voting for Mr. Trump among his supporters were “his past performance as President” and “he fights for people like me,” both at 94 percent; confidence that he would “beat Joe Biden,” at 84 percent; and “how he deals with political opponents,” at 82 percent.The final topic of the sprawling survey asked respondents what they valued in a candidate at this juncture in the 2024 presidential primaries.The most popular criterion, according to respondents, was that a candidate “challenges woke ideas,” with 85 percent of respondents reporting it was important for a candidate to do so.Behind challenges to woke ideas, 66 percent reported preferring candidates who opposed “any gun restrictions,” 61 percent preferred candidates who say that “Trump won in 2020,” and 57 percent reported preferring candidates who make “liberals angry.”

Trump Dominates GOP Field, DeSantis Has Most To Gain: Poll

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