Trump Emerges as the Great Political Mapmaker of the Era, Making Battlegrounds of Democratic Strongholds

As they carve their turkeys this year, Republicans can be grateful for President Trump, mapmaker.He’s redrawn America’s political geography — not only winning back the White House for himself but pointing the way to victory for his party four years from now.Before Trump, the major industrial states touching the Great Lakes were out of Republicans’ reach. Only Ohio was winnable for the GOP, but it was a battleground, voting twice for President George W. Bush and twice for President Obama.Republicans dreamed of a “solid South,” yet that too eluded them: Florida was another battleground, one Mr. Bush came within a Supreme Court decision of losing in 2000.The brief window when a Republican like Mr. Bush could compete for the White House had closed by 2008. The problem was that even Mr. Bush’s one clear win — his 2004 re-election — depended on an electoral map his party couldn’t recreate, as states like Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico moved into the Democrats’ column, where they’ve stayed since 2008.Republicans were in a dire predicament, but few dared admit it.Instead of recognizing the flaws in their own strategy, GOP campaign gurus resorted to exaggerating the other side’s strength: They accepted the progressive myth of Mr. Obama as a once-in-a-generation political genius.Who could blame the GOP for losing to a phenom like Mr. Obama?Trump could and did.Instead of fighting his elections on the map Republicans had been using, and mostly losing on, since 2000, Trump drew his own.Nothing Republicans had tried since President Reagan left office had succeeded in piercing the “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Even if some Republican other than Trump could have won Ohio and Florida in 2016 — when both were still hotly contested swing states — no one else had a clue how to win the Rust Belt, and those blue-since-the-1990s states would have been enough, on top of what she did wind up winning, to make Senator Clinton president. GOP nominees before Trump campaigned heavily in Pennsylvania to no avail.Senator Romney had Michigan roots but couldn’t win there in 2012, just as his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan, was unable to deliver his home state.Trump, on the other hand, turned his adopted home of Florida from a battleground into a reliably red bastion.Thanks to Trump, Florida and Ohio aren’t swing states anymore. He won each three times, and neither seems like a realistic prospect for Democrats in 2028.To be sure, Governor DeSantis and others deserve credit for Florida’s red shift, too.Yet the Trump effect is unmistakable: He’s moved the old battlegrounds into the Republican column and made new battlegrounds out of formerly impregnable Blue Wall states. He’s also put in place the two things his party needs to win those Rust Belt battlegrounds again in 2028: a new attitude toward trade and labor, and a vice president named Senator Vance. Just how far Trump will go in returning America to the kind of wide-ranging tariff regime the nation had in the 19th century remains to be seen, as does the effect his policies will have on the industrial laborers he’s courted.Yet voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have given Trump the benefit of the doubt twice now, and Mr. Vance — who is an Ohio native himself — is the kind of Republican they’re most likely to trust to keep pressing a pro-laborer agenda.To counteract Mr. Vance’s appeal to the Rust Belt, Democrats may have to attempt in 2028 what the GOP tried in 2012: running candidates with regional ties.Governor Whitmer and Governor Shapiro are the most plausible contenders. Anyone else — a California yuppie like Governor Newsom or a semi-libertarian like Governor Polis — could find the Blue Wall has become a Red Wall.Democrats can ill afford to hope that Republican screw-ups will help them win in 2028, the way Mr. Bush’s follies, culminating in the Great Recession and ensuing bailouts, propelled Mr. Obama to the White House in 2008.The Trump map was already put to the harshest of tests four years ago — when Covid, the recession triggered by the pandemic and the riots following George Floyd’s death created ideal conditions for Democrats, and in President Biden they had a candidate with Pennsylvania roots.Despite all that, Trump lost Pennsylvania by a little more than one point and Wisconsin by less than one. Without another pandemic, Democrats may have to reinvent themselves as drastically as Trump reinvented the GOP if they want to beat his map. Republicans shouldn’t be complacent, but they can give thanks that the great political cartographer of our age isn’t Mr. Obama — it’s Trump. Creators.com

Trump Emerges as the Great Political Mapmaker of the Era, Making Battlegrounds of Democratic Strongholds

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