According to the Department of the Treasury, customs duty collections are surpassing $100 billion for the first time in a fiscal year and America is enjoying its first June in the black since 2017. The results show progress for President Trump’s tariff-based strategy to grow out of deficits, provided a Congress reluctant to cut spending can be convinced to hold the line. 

The former head of DOGE, Elon Musk, broke with Mr. Trump over the cost of the Big, Beautiful Law. He’s launching a third party to tackle America’s $36.6 trillion national debt, dismissing arguments that more revenue can tame that ocean of red ink. 

“The Trump tariffs,” Mr. Musk predicted on June 5, “will cause a recession in the second half of this year.” In May, Secretary Yellen, President Biden’s Treasury sachem, said Mr. Trump’s tariffs “will have tremendously adverse consequences.” 

An American Enterprise Institute economist, Michael Strain, told CNBC in April that if Mr. Trump didn’t “reverse course” on tariffs, he’d “increase the unemployment rate to recessionary levels.” In the event, the unemployment rate has declined; wages are rising. 

On Wednesday, Polymarket’s odds of a recession fell to 20 percent, down from 66 percent after Mr. Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2. That followed Goldman Sachs cutting its recession odds to 30 percent, down from 45 percent in April.

One after another, economists are succumbing to the Missing Data Fallacy. Rather than looking at results and accepting them, they’re convinced that data exists to validate their conclusion and hypothesis, proving they were right about tariffs all along. 

Mr. Trump makes a habit of confounding these self-described “experts.” One would think they might be happy to be proven wrong, as Republicans were when President Clinton’s tax hikes failed to kill the economic expansion dating back to President Reagan. Instead, they’re scanning a blue sky, determined to find a cloud. 

“Where’s the Inflation From Tariffs?” a headline in Sunday’s Times asked. “Just Wait, Economists Say.” They may wish they had the option to delete the story later, as Mr. Musk killed his tweet predicting a recession. For now, they seem downcast that prices aren’t skyrocketing.

Forbes reported on Sunday that a “$100 billion mystery is unfolding on tariffs and inflation” but “economists are cracking the case.” It paints a picture of Americans hunkered down on their porches, waiting to defend hearth and home against inflation’s impending arrival. 

Considering the muted reaction to the revenue windfall, it’s worth pondering if deficit hawks like Mr. Musk are really back in vogue or if the deficit issue was just a convenient cudgel to wield against Mr. Trump. In any case, those who presume to set conventional wisdom are sticking to their stormy forecasts. 

Reuters downplayed June’s $27.2 billion surplus as “small,” though it’s greater than the annual GDP of most nations, and CNBC described it as “unexpected.” Of course, Mr. Trump not only expected it, he promised it in April. That’s back when CNBC was reporting that “economists” were saying “tariffs will likely raise much less money” than he projected.

The chief economist at Moody’s, Mark Zandi, told CNBC in April that America would be “pretty lucky” to get even $100 billion from tariffs annually. The Treasury has already surpassed that figure for 2025 and Mr. Trump hasn’t settled on the final rates, which he says will start on August 1. 

Reuters noted on Friday that Mr. Trump “has long touted tariffs as a lucrative revenue source,” as if the customs numbers hadn’t proven them to be just that. Last week, CNBC likewise explained away the fact that stock markets hadn’t tanked by saying they’re “calling Trump’s bluff” on tariffs. 

CNN echoed the “bluff” take, but it strains credulity. Stock traders are pitted against each other in a cutthroat business. It’s far more likely that they’ve seen the revenue boom from tariffs than that they’re colluding to snub Mr. Trump at the risk of their portfolios. 

Warnings that tariffs will cause a recession, inflation, and mass layoffs may yet prove right or the gloom surrounding them could cause a self-fulfilling prophecy. So far, though, Americans aren’t leaving their porchlights on for an economic Armageddon that shows no signs of arriving anytime soon.