Recent polls are music to President Trump’s ears, but Democrats are deaf to the melody. They’re wedded to the fallacy that Americans see the president as they do and will dance to their tune in next year’s midterm elections.Ever since 2015, foes have denied that Mr. Trump has any appeal beyond what President Theodore Roosevelt dubbed “the lunatic fringe.” This is the “false consensus effect,” the belief that everyone shares your viewpoint. It’s manifesting in Democrats assuming that almost all Americans disapprove of Mr. Trump. The numbers tell a different story. “Trump just did the impossible,” the Rasmussen Reports pollster, Mark Mitchell, wrote Tuesday on X. “For the first time in our polling history, a majority says the country is on the right track.” In September, Rasmussen found the right-track number at just 34 percent. Mr. Mitchell noted that President Biden’s “approval was never higher than Trump’s is now,” at 42 percent. President Obama was also lower throughout his second term. Since Democrats don’t think they need to persuade Mr. Trump’s voters, he’s free to play offense. He raids constituents like union members, minorities, and blue-state residents, pickpocketing Democrats who act as if they have voters to spare.Democrats dismiss Rasmussen as a Republican poll, but other surveys play tracks from the same album. Last week’s Quantus Insights poll found that Mr. Trump’s approval had risen by four points among Democrats since April, driven by a five-point jump with Black voters.Last week’s InsiderAdvantage poll found Mr. Trump’s approval among Hispanics at 60 percent, a 22 percent leap since April. The survey put Mr. Trump’s overall approval at 55 percent, up from 46 percent earlier in the month. His disapproval sat unchanged at 44 percent.Rather than take steps to erode Mr. Trump’s numbers, Democrats cling to the notion that voters regret choosing him; so they don’t need to change. Two polls tested this part of the fallacy. A CNN/SSRS poll in late April asked which 2024 candidate would be doing a better job in office. Mr. Trump led Vice President Harris 45 percent to 43 percent, identical to his two-point margin of victory in November. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, also from late April, asked American adults whom they trusted to confront “the country’s major problems.” Congressional Democrats trailed Mr. Trump by eight points, 40 percent to 32 percent. Democrats ignore those results and others like them — even from friendly organizations like Civiqs — describing the president’s governing as “chaos” despite lacking any evidence that the message is hitting home.Democrats can always find data on which to focus through their rose-colored glasses. Mr. Trump’s approval fell six points between February and April in the ABC poll. His disapproval remained steady within the two-point margin of error, meaning voters who no longer approved only moved to neutral. The Morning Consult poll last week was another that showed Mr. Trump’s approval rising. It soared five points from earlier this month to 50 percent — his highest number since mid-March. The two-point drop in the disapproval was within the margin of error. Last week’s Quantus poll found Mr. Trump’s approval rating unchanged from surveys earlier in the month and in April. The J.L. Partners/Daily Mail poll from two weeks ago was more of the same: The president’s approval rating rose five points from the previous month, reaching 50 percent. Monday’s YouGov/Economist poll found Mr. Trump rising four points to 46 percent over its two previous surveys. Monday’s Civiqs poll pegged his approval at 53 percent, two points higher than on Inauguration Day, with a disapproval that had fallen two points over the same period. The RealClearPolitics average of 13 polls from May 1 through Monday found just two points separating Mr. Trump’s 47.7 percent approval from his 49.7 percent disapproval. Although factors like methodology and sample size varied, the aggregate image is one Democrats ignore at their peril.Polls are just snapshots of the electorate, but wise political parties recognize their trends. The current trend is presenting Democrats with a choice: abandon their fallacy that Mr. Trump is weak and adapt for the midterm elections or keep playing the same old song as if voters haven’t been tuning it out for years.
