Trump Leads Biden in Swing States, Even as Voters Prefer Democrats for Senate

New polling suggests that President Biden is trailing President Trump across most swing states, even as Democratic candidates for Senate are leading their Republican counterparts.The new survey from the New York Times and Siena College indicates that Mr. Trump is maintaining his edge in polling in most of the states likely to decide the 2024 election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.In Arizona, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and in Georgia, Mr. Trump leads 50 percent to 41 percent. In Michigan, Mr. Trump leads 47 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, and in Nevada, he leads 51 percent to 38 percent. In Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump leads 48 percent to 45 percent.The only swing state included in the survey where Mr. Biden is ahead is Wisconsin, where he leads Mr. Trump 47 percent to 46 percent among likely voters.Combined, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden 40 percent to 33 percent across the six swing states surveyed. Attorney Robert Kennedy Jr. also received 10 percent support, and another 10 percent either said they didn’t know or refused to answer the question.The swing state survey’s findings suggest a disconnect between swing state voters and the national trend in polling, which shows Messrs. Trump and Biden locked in a tight race for months.FiveThirtyEight’s average of national surveys currently has Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump by just 0.9 points, with Mr. Kennedy receiving about 10 percent support nationally.The presidential polling stands in contrast to the same survey’s findings about Senate races in these states. A combined 45 percent of respondents say they plan to support Democrats in the Senate, while 40 percent say they plan to support Republicans.In Arizona, Congressman Ruben Gallego leads TV news host Kari Lake 45 percent to 41 percent. In Nevada, Senator Rosen leads the Republican nominee, Sam Brown, 40 percent to 38 percent.In Pennsylvania, Senator Casey leads businessman David McCormick 46 percent to 41 percent, and in Wisconsin, Senator Baldwin leads the Republican nominee, Eric Hovde, 49 percent to 40 percent.Mr. Trump’s swing state lead over Mr. Biden appears to be fueled by an advantage on a few key issues, as well as Mr. Trump making gains with Black and Hispanic Americans.Among Black voters in the swing states, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump 63 percent to 23 percent, which would be a dramatic improvement for Mr. Trump if the polling proves accurate on Election Day.Among Hispanic voters, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump 45 percent to 42 percent, which would also represent a significant improvement for Mr. Trump over the 2020 results.The survey, which contacted more than 4,000 voters total, only contacted 484 Black voters and 367 Hispanic voters, respectively, meaning that these groups likely have a higher margin of error than the survey as a whole. It’s also worth noting that polling this far from an election is not typically representative of the final result.The editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Larry Sabato, commented on the survey’s results in a post, saying, “It’s good to see much less gnashing of teeth today in reaction to a prominent newspaper’s swing state surveys.”“Polls will bounce around a good deal until they finally begin to mean something after the conventions,” Mr. Sabato said. “Even then, many of them will be poorly done and misleading.”Mr. Biden’s own campaign has also called into question the poll’s results online, saying, “The New York Times Siena poll has consistently slanted toward Donald Trump.”“The New York Times will release their poll, the political and media class will run around with their hair on fire, and then three days later polls will show a deadlocked race,” the Biden campaign said in a post. “Does anyone think Donald Trump is leading Nevada by double digits, seriously?”In terms of the issues, just 36 percent of voters preferred Mr. Biden on “the economy,” while 58 percent preferred Mr. Trump. Similarly, some 50 percent said they preferred Mr. Trump on “the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” while just 35 percent preferred Mr. Biden.The most significant issue Mr. Biden is preferred on was abortion, where 49 percent of voters preferred Mr. Biden and 38 percent preferred Mr. Trump.

Trump Leads Biden in Swing States, Even as Voters Prefer Democrats for Senate

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