Anger among Iranians directed at the Islamic Republic’s regime could soon boil over after massive port explosions over the weekend just as the Lebanese population turned on Hezbollah after a Beirut port explosion five years ago. Will American nuclear talks rescue and legitimize the failing Tehran regime? 

“This is the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic,” a prominent New York-based Iranian dissident, Masih Alinejad, tells the Sun. “They can’t even store fuel without blowing up half a city, and some still think they should be trusted with nuclear technology? Give this regime a nuclear bomb, and you’re not just risking Iran, you’re risking the world.”

A video of the Bandar Abbas explosion impact that Ms. Alinejad posted on Instagram was viewed by four million Iranians, she says. The regime has imposed strict limitations on reporting from the scene, where explosions incinerated the environs of Iran’s Shahid Rajaee, a key port at Bandar Abbas. Secondary explosions followed all weekend, and fires remained smoldering through Monday.

Tehran officials say 65 people were killed and hundreds injured, but many Iranians suspect the casualties numbers are much higher. Regime statements about what triggered the series of port explosions have also been opaque and confusing. Officials denied that the cause was unauthorized unloading of missile fuel at the port, instead pointing fingers at “negligence and non-compliance with safety regulations.” 

Satellite images show three initial explosions at the port, indicating possible sabotage — but not connected to Israel, an unidentified Jerusalem official told reporters Sunday. Tehran officials denied sabotage was involved. On Sunday, perhaps to deflect attention, they claimed that in an entirely unrelated incident Iran managed to prevent “one of the most widespread and complex cyber attacks against the country’s infrastructure.”

Anger is growing over the regime’s inability to store dangerous substances at a civilian port without wreaking widespread havoc. “Iranians are heartbroken,” Ms. Alinehjad says. “There is no sympathy from the government, and people feel they’re left alone.”

That anger is yet to manifest itself into huge street protests, though. Iranians have taken to the streets three times since 2017 to resist the regime “and each time they were slaughtered,” an Iran watcher at the Foundation to Defend Democracies, Saeed Ghasseminejad, tells the Sun. They might now “feel like they have tried and the regime has been too powerful for them.”

The lesson of the August, 2020, Beirut port explosions might be instructive, though. Lebanese anger at Hezbollah was muted at the time, with the terror organization dominating Lebanese life, intimidating and murdering opponents. Now though, Lebanese civilians and politicians increasingly demand its disarmament. 

The growing anti-Hezbollah sentiment in Lebanon follows last September’s devastating attack on the group by the Israelis. Similarly, the Islamic Republic’s recent setbacks have weakened the regime. At that very point, though, Washington now appears to be throwing the mullahs a lifeline in the form of negotiations on a nuclear deal. 

Saturday’s port explosions occurred just as Tehran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aaraghchi, was negotiating at Oman with an American team headed by special envoy Steven Witkoff. The talks are “going very well,” President Trump said Sunday. “I’m pretty sure it’s going to happen. We’ll have something without having to start dropping bombs all over the place.”

Iran’s state-controlled media all but blacked out coverage of the port explosions, highlighting instead the Oman talks. “For the regime, the most important thing is that nothing will harm these talks with the Americas,” an Iran watcher at the Middle East Media Research Institute, Ayelet Savyon, tells the Sun. 

While Mr. Trump says a deal is around the corner, Tehran’s diplomats are eager to extend the talks for as long as possible. “The longer these negotiations are going, the pressure is off their shoulders,” Mr. Ghasseminejad says. They say “Israel cannot target us. We can rebuild our proxies. We can rebuild our missile program. We can rebuild our missile defense. We can rebuild our offensive program.”

Israel, though, is skeptical about a deal. “Dismantle all the infrastructure of Iran’s nuclear program, that is a deal we can live with,” Prime Minister Netanyahu told a conference at Jerusalem Sunday. Mr. Trump  told Time magazine last week that Israel will not drag America into war if the talks fail. Yet, he added, “If we don’t make a deal, I’ll be leading the pack,” striking nuclear facilities. 

Both sides say that talks are progressing well even as major sticking points remain. Iran “must stop and eliminate” domestic uranium enrichment, Mr. Witkoff says. But for the Iranians, zero enrichment is “non-negotiable,” according to the Iranian deputy foreign minister, Majid Takht-Ravanchi.

Premature optimism over the nuclear diplomacy, meanwhile, seems discouraging for regime opponents, even as many Iranians are irate at Tehran’s incompetence.