President Trump is making a play for New York’s 28 electoral votes, aiming to be the first Republican to win the state in 40 years. The strategy has long odds, but by holding rallies and maximizing the time he’s required to be in Gotham defending himself in court, it may force Democrats to spend resources and help down-ballot GOP candidates to decide control of the House.

“We’re very close in New York,” Mr. Trump told reporters after a meeting with union construction crews on Thursday. “I think we’re going to do very well and we’re going to make a play for New York. They said, I just heard, a very good poll came out.”  

In the Sienna College poll released last week, Mr. Trump trailed Mr. Biden by ten points in a survey of 806 registered voters with a 3.4-point margin of error. In Sienna’s October survey of 1,225 registered voters, Mr. Biden led by only seven. A larger sample size is considered more accurate.

Left-leaning independent candidates could further sap votes from Mr. Biden. In 2022, though, New York imposed a new burden on anyone like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. whose father, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, represented the state. To gain ballot access, candidates must gather 45,000 signatures in a six-week period, the tightest timeline in the nation.

“Normally,” Mr. Trump said, “a Democrat will win New York,” which is one reason that, while building his business empire in the state, the real estate mogul was a registered Democrat. Switching to the Republicans, like President Reagan, may help encourage others to jump ship.

The business manager of Steamfitters Local 638 UA, Robert Bartels, Jr., after meeting with Mr. Trump, was favorable to him in an interview with Newsmax. He cited immigration, tax dollars being spent on migrants, and crime as problems that Mr. Biden had failed to address.

“We are basically Democrats, all of us,” Mr. Bartels said, “and after what’s happened the last four years in this country, the Democrats have basically pushed everybody to the other side. We’re a very patriotic group, and we love our country, and we want the best for America. … We need to put a handle on things in this country and bring it back to how it should be.”

“Biden is the worst president in history,” Mr. Trump said, “and we have some very bad people here. But we have the greatest people here right behind me,” indicating the construction workers, “and they all want us to run, and we’re going to run very hard in New York. We have a good chance of winning New York, in my opinion. We’re gonna give it a shot.”

Prior to entering court on Thursday, Mr. Trump made the same remark about being “down very little in New York” and thinking he has “a good chance of winning.” He promised “to give it a big play” with rallies in the South Bronx and Manhattan. “We think we’re signing Madison Square Garden to do it.”

Further boosting Mr. Trump’s hopes is that presidential elections drive turnout more than off-year contests. New York’s 2022 gubernatorial race was the state’s closest since 1994. The incumbent, Governor Hochul, won by 6.4 percent, the narrowest Democratic victory since 1982 — two years before Reagan last put the Empire State in the GOP column.

As for down-ballot races, Mr. Trump gives New York Republicans more motivation to head to the polls than they’d have for just congressional candidates. With the GOP clinging to a narrow margin in the House of Representatives, one or two wins in New York — which has the third most seats of any state — could decide control.

Mr. Trump, the first New Yorker to win the White House in over a century, may not carry his home state. If his play forces Democrats to spend money in the nation’s most expensive media market, though, he’d score a tactical victory — one that could decide if he completes the most improbable comeback in presidential history.