Trump’s Lead Is Larger Than Anti-Trump GOP Faction, Biden’s Approval Slides: Polls

A new slate of surveys finds that Governor DeSantis’s appeal is fading among some GOP primary voters, the anti-Trump faction of the GOP is smaller than President Trump’s primary lead, and President Biden’s approval rating is flirting with all-time lows.A new survey from Marquette University Law School — regarded by many as one of the most consistently accurate pollsters — found that Mr. Trump’s support in the GOP primary was solid at 46 percent between May 18 and the end of the survey in mid-July.The same survey found that Mr. DeSantis’s support dropped to 22 percent from 25 percent as Vice President Pence surged in the polls to 7 percent from 2 percent.For Mr. DeSantis, this marks a low point in the poll, having fallen from 35 percent support in March. Mr. Trump increased his support to 46 percent from 40 percent in the same time period.The director of the Marquette poll and a professor of law and public policy, Charles Franklin, tells the Sun that “the July poll clearly shows Trump in a dominant position, with a solid base, near a majority or just over a majority, among Republican voters.”“Frontrunners often win, but there are enough exceptions to be cautious,” Mr. Franklin adds. “This time Trump is a quasi-incumbent, far better known and with more settled opinions of him than for any past non-incumbent candidate. So while Trump theoretically could slump, history and his status make that unlikely.”Mr. Franklin did stress that the “polls show us how the campaign is evolving” and should be taken as “snapshots in time,” and, “We know things will change in some ways but we aren’t trying to predict the final at this point.”Mr. Franklin describes Mr. Trump as well insulated from his legal woes among Republicans, citing his relatively stable approval throughout the first impeachment and that 50 percent of Republicans maintain that there were no classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, per his latest poll.In a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden, the poll found that Mr. DeSantis appears to have a slight advantage. In a matchup pitting Mr. Trump versus Mr. Biden, both candidates polled at 50 percent. If it were Mr. DeSantis versus Mr. Biden, Mr. DeSantis polls at 51 percent while Mr. Biden enjoys 48 percent support.The Marquette survey saw 1,005 American adults interviewed and had a margin of error of plus or minus four points, meaning the general election polling was within the margin of error.In the Republican primary, a new New York Times and Siena College Poll found that most Republican voters report believing Mr. Trump is the stronger candidate, despite results like those from the Marquette University poll.Among those likely to vote in the Republican primary, 58 percent of respondents to the Siena College Poll report believing that Mr. Trump is “able to beat Joe Biden,” compared to 28 percent who say the same about Mr. DeSantis.Mr. Trump also scored better than Mr. DeSantis in terms of being perceived as a “strong leader,” 69 percent to 22 percent, being able to get things done, 67 percent to 22 percent, and being “fun,” 54 percent to 16 percent.Mr. DeSantis was perceived as more “likable” than Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 43 percent, and more “moral” than Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 37 percent.Adding to Mr. DeSantis’s uphill battle for the nomination is that only about 25 percent of likely GOP primary voters who responded to the Siena College Poll were not considering Mr. Trump as a candidate. According to the poll, Mr. Trump leads Mr. DeSantis in the primary by 37 points.Mr. Biden appears to be dragged down by low approval ratings, which have been a downward trajectory despite positive economic news like favorable jobs reports and waning inflation.A YouGov poll conducted for CBS News found that Mr. Biden’s approval rating reached a new low in July 2021, with 40 percent of respondents approving of his performance.Driving this is that 34 percent of voters approve of his handling of the economy. The low approval numbers come as Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign rolls out a new messaging effort dubbed “Bidenomics.” The YouGov survey found that 41 percent of voters have heard “a lot” or “some” about Bidenomics, while 59 percent had heard “not much” or “nothing at all.”Of those with an impression of Bidenomics, 50 percent said it reminded them of higher inflation, and 49 percent said it made them think of tax increases. The poll did not differentiate between tax increases for various income brackets.Among those with thoughts about Bidenomics, 34 percent associated it with investment in infrastructure, 32 percent with job creation.The CBS News and YouGov poll surveyed 2,181 American adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points.

Trump’s Lead Is Larger Than Anti-Trump GOP Faction, Biden’s Approval Slides: Polls

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