Polls are finding President Trump and President Biden tied heading towards a rematch. With neither candidate breaking out, expect the election to come down to whether Mr. Trump can change the perception of Mr. Biden as the candidate who cares.

A Wall Street Journal poll conducted last week found each candidate with 46 percent support from registered voters with the electorate judging Mr. Trump better on key issues. These include, as Lawrence Kudlow writes in the Sun, an eight-point advantage on “vision for the future.” 

Voters also have a rosier recollection of Mr. Trump’s term in office. A poll — from CNN, no less — conducted after the first GOP debate found on the question of who had a strong record of accomplishment, Mr. Trump holds a lead of 11 points.

In May, a Washington-Post/ABC poll found Mr. Trump 18 points ahead on who did a better job handling the economy. On having the mental sharpness and physical health required to be president, he led by 22 and 31 points respectively.

Twenty-six percent told the Post that Mr. Biden was too old for the job. Only one percent said the same for Mr. Trump while 43 percent said both and 28 percent neither. Fifty-nine percent disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of the economy, and almost three quarters said inflation “is headed in the wrong direction.”

Although conventional wisdom holds that Mr. Trump’s legal troubles will sink him, even here he had hope. Twenty-four percent told the Journal that the indictments made them more likely to vote for him versus 37 percent who said less.

These numbers — and the unemployment rate’s jump — ought to bode well for Mr. Trump duplicating President Cleveland’s 1892 comeback, a feat attempted by Presidents Van Buren, Tyler, Fillmore, Grant, and Roosevelt without success.

So why does Mr. Biden have a fighting chance? The answer lurks deep in the polls, with the incumbent leading on questions of personality: 48 percent of voters told the Journal he’s likable, 18 points ahead of Mr. Trump.

On being honest and trustworthy, Mr. Biden held an eight-point advantage in the Journal, and CNN found that even among the Republican primary voters, 89 percent back Mr. Trump because of his stance on issues, not his personality.

It’s often said — usually by campaigns with unlikable candidates — that elections aren’t popularity contests, but there’s a reason we call it the popular vote, and Mr. Trump has lost it twice. Voters appreciate what he delivers, but they like Mr. Biden more. 

Personality, not policies, led to Mr. Trump’s defeat in 2020, with Gallup exit polls finding that he lost to Mr. Biden two-to-one on likability and by nine points on “cares about the needs of people like you.” 

As I wrote in the Sun last month, after three years in the White House, Mr. Biden no longer enjoys these wide advantages, leaving an opening for Mr. Trump to exploit the incumbent’s emerging “empathy gap.”

Mr. Biden’s approval numbers began to slide with the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, which included an infamous moment when he checked his watch while welcoming the flag-draped caskets of fallen soldiers home.

A curt “no comment” and two vacations during the Maui wildfires further eroded Mr. Biden’s image as a politician who cares, hugs voters, and embraces everyone from Republicans to segregationists.

There was also Mr. Biden’s refusal to recognize his son Hunter’s illegitimate daughter. He hung Christmas stockings for the other presidential grandchildren and even their pets but not for her. By the time the White House sent out a statement acknowledging the child’s existence, the damage had been done. 

On Tuesday, Mr. Biden took another hit when he skipped out on a Medal of Honor ceremony before the closing prayer. These moments will be spun by the White House, but they can be the building blocks of a negative image that’s lethal to the one the president has spent 50 years crafting. 

Mr. Trump can’t change his spots, but he can use his strengths to drive up Mr. Biden’s negatives, personalizing the pain of Bidenomics. Whether he does so may again decide who emerges from the empathy gap to reach the White House and who voters decide just doesn’t care.