As a former Speaker of the House and an historian, I am watching the market meltdown and ensuing financial panic with skepticism.

Everyone should look at their stocks around August of 2026. I subscribe to the Warren Buffett theory of buying carefully for the long run rather than timing the market. Volatility over the next few months will make accurate projections impossible.

President Trump is pursuing the most intense, aggressive changes in modern American history. His re-election and presidency represent the fifth largest shift since the founding of the Republic. Presidents Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt preceded Mr. Trump as historic change agents.

Vast changes are inevitably tumultuous and take on lives of their own.

They are always led by strong personalities who have deep senses of where they are going in the long run — but remarkable flexibility in how to get there. 

Jefferson was frugal and wanted a small government. However, given the chance to double the size of the country, he executed the Louisiana Purchase. Jefferson methodically destroyed the Federalist Party. He then sent the Marines to the shores of Tripoli.

Jackson ran a four-year insurgency campaign against President John Quincy Adams — whom he believed had stolen the presidency through a corrupt bargain with Henry Clay. Having won, Jackson took on the Bank of the United States, the largest business in the country. He destroyed it and returned banking to the state level. Jackson’s administration was filled with conflict and continuously took on the establishment. 

Lincoln faced the choice of presiding over the collapse of the Union or war. He chose war and led the North for four painful years in the bloodiest single conflict in American history. He innovated with paper currency, the draft, the Homestead Act, the transcontinental railroad, and a host of other projects. 

Roosevelt was surrounded by people who wanted to dramatically remake America into a government-dominated, bureaucratically-implemented national system. They saw the Great Depression as an excuse to move the country to the left. It was an enormous shift from the traditional limited, small government system which had dominated for 160 years. It was so successful it has been the dominant system up until the rise of Mr. Trump.

The fifth great change in American history started right after the election. We are presently on a wild river rapid experience — not a pleasure cruise. And the wild ride is going to continue for at least a year.

Mr. Trump’s historic change agenda can’t possibly be implemented in fewer than 12 months — and it may take a little longer.

However, I suspect by the middle of next winter, the system will begin to stabilize. The court cases will largely be done. The bureaucracy will have been reshaped and will be focused on making the new system work. New methods of measuring outcome quality and cost will begin to reshape taxpayer spending (more deeply and pervasively than even DOGE could achieve).

If Republicans in Congress are smart, the tax cuts will have kicked in, and the enormous incentives for building factories will be leading to the largest construction boom since World War II. Likewise, the deregulation efforts will be making new construction much faster and cheaper.

The scale of investment from overseas will have a much more positive effect than any initial drag induced by tariffs. And the tariffs themselves will largely have stabilized as more countries will have negotiated with Mr. Trump. By January 2026, people will have adjusted to maximize profits and minimize costs in the new system.

The spending cuts will have given the markets breathing room to begin bringing borrowing costs down.

Mr. Trump’s “radical transparency” in health care costs and quality will be shifting spending toward more efficient and effective systems that create better health outcomes.

The momentum of celebrating the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence (what I’m calling America’s birthday) will increase patriotism in retrospect and optimism in prospect. The sense that we could be on the verge of a Golden Age of progress and prosperity will lead to an enormous sense of pride in America.

So, August 2026 will be a good time to look at your stocks. The wild ride will have slowed down, and the pleasure cruise will begin.