UN’s Grynspan Calls on Central Bankers To Halt Interest Rate Hikes

Officials at the UN Conference on Trade and Development recommend that central bankers consider price controls and windfall taxes to combat inflation instead of continued interest rate increases.

AP/Zahid Hussain
A UN report suggests that continued interest rate increases in the developed world will hit the world's neediest citizens hardest. AP/Zahid Hussain

An official with the United Nations has called on the world’s central bankers to halt the upward spiral of interest rates, warning that they risk sending the world over a precipice and into a global recession.

The head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, Rebecca Grynspan, warned in a report published this week that the “unduly rapid tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies in combination with inadequate multilateral support could turn a slowdown into recession.”

The Geneva-based body, which is charged with addressing trade, development and investment issues relating to the developing world, warned that the coming shock could be worse than the financial crisis of 2007-2009 and hit debt-laden countries in the less-developed countries around the world especially hard.

“There is still time to step back from the edge of recession,” Ms. Grynspan said. “This is a matter of policy choices and political will.”

In its annual report, the agency predicts that growth of the global economy will drop to 2.5 percent for 2022 and 2.2 percent in 2023, a rate that would leave the world worse off than it was before the Covid pandemic. Middle income countries in Latin America and low-income ones in Africa are projected to fare the worst, the report concluded.

The report singled out America’s Federal Reserve as being a primary culprit for rising interest rates. “This year’s interest rate hikes in the United States are set to cut an estimated $360 billion of future income for developing countries (excluding China) and signal even more trouble ahead,” the report states.

In an attempt to rein in rampant inflation, the Fed raised its benchmark federal funds rates by three-quarters of a point at its last meeting in September, bringing rates to a range between 3 percent and 3.5 percent — up from near zero at the start of the year. Analysts expect the central bank to continue its hikes and allow rates to settle between 4 percent and 4.5 percent by the end of the year.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have also been raising interest rates since the start of the year. The Bank of England’s rates are at their highest levels since 2008, and are also expected to continue their upward trajectory.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, a lead author of the UN’s report, Richard Kozul-Wright, suggested that policy-makers should, instead of interest rate increases, consider price caps funded by windfall profits taxes on energy companies. Trying to solve an inflation problem driven partially by supply-side issues such as shortages of goods with demand-side solutions is a “dangerous approach,” he said.

“We call then for a more pragmatic policy mix that deploys strategic price controls, windfall taxes, antitrust measures and tighter regulations on commodity speculation,” Ms. Grynspan said in a statement, echoing Mr. Kozul-Wright’s comments. “We also need to make greater efforts to end commodity price speculation.”

At a news conference last month announcing the Fed’s latest rate increase, Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the bank’s policies can impact other countries but said his primary concern remains inflation in the United States and that the bank would continue on its current course.

“We are very aware of what’s going on in other economies around the world, and what that means for us, and vice versa,” Mr. Powell said. “The forecast that we put together, that our staff puts together and that we put together on our own, always take all of that — try to take all of that into account.”


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