Virginia Vote Will Test Parties’ Abortion Messaging, Youngkin’s Viability for National Office

In the final days of campaigning in the much-watched Virginia state elections, Democrats and Republicans are turning up the heat to try to gain an edge in what’s expected to be a close election.The stakes are high in Virginia not only for the voters but for politicians who are looking to the election to gauge the state of play on abortion ahead of the 2024 elections. For Governor Youngkin, the success or failure of the GOP could also have implications for the future of his political career.Democrats have campaigned heavily on abortion rights in the state, and in the last week before the election, which is on November 7, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is pulling out all the stops.The committee released a list of GOP candidates who have publicly supported Mr. Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban, with the group’s president, Heather Williams, saying, “A ban is a ban and that’s what Virginians will see if more Republicans are elected to the state legislature.”“Glenn Youngkin wants to do to Virginia what Ron DeSantis did to Florida,” Ms. Williams said. “The only way to protect fundamental freedoms in Virginia is by voting.”Republicans in the state have been testing new messaging on abortion, reframing the 15-week abortion ban as a “limit,” with Mr. Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC spending as much as $1.4 million in October to disseminate that framing.“Here’s the truth. There is no ban,” the narrator of one GOP ad says. “Virginia Republicans support a reasonable 15-week limit with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”If successful in Virginia, this sort of framing from Republicans is likely to get rolled out nationwide, with groups like Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America pressuring Republicans to get behind a 15-week ban specifically.“Candidates across this country should take note of how Republicans in Virginia are leading on the issue of life by going on offense and exposing the left’s radical abortion agenda,” the group’s political director, Kaitlin Makuski, said in a statement.Currently, Virginia allows abortions until the end of the second trimester at 26 weeks. It’s the only state in the South that has not enacted more restrictions on abortion since Roe v. Wade was overturned.The main reason why Virginia has not adopted stricter laws on abortion is because Democrats control the state Senate, something that Republicans are hoping to change at the polls Tuesday.In terms of strategy, Republicans have also changed their tactic when it comes to voting, with Mr. Youngkin encouraging Republican voters to vote early while other Republicans, like President Trump, have attacked early voting.“We started behind because the Democrats had started embracing early voting a long time ago,” Mr. Youngkin told reporters after a rally at a Richmond suburb. “But I’ve also given everybody a real free pass to come vote early, get a mail-in ballot, and just make sure that your vote is cast and secured by taking advantage of these rules.”At the same time, Republicans have been criticized by Democrats for purging more than 3,000 eligible voters from the state’s voter rolls ahead of the election.The Virginia Department of Elections has since announced that it reinstated nearly all of the voters who were incorrectly removed from the voter rolls. Mr. Youngkin has ordered the Office of the Inspector General of Virginia to investigate the incident.The race in Virginia is also being closely watched because it will be a midterm of sorts for Mr. Youngkin, who was elected to the governorship in 2021.Commentators have speculated that Mr. Youngkin will be pressured to enter the presidential race if he sees favorable results on Tuesday. Mr. Youngkin has refused to answer questions about presidential aspirations up to this point, saying he is focusing on the state elections.Speculation aside, both parties will be examining Tuesday’s elections to see how their messaging is playing with voters ahead of 2024 and to see who turns out to the polls.For Republicans, the elections will test whether their 2021 coalition that swept Mr. Youngkin into power remains intact, even after a worse-than-expected midterm for the GOP in 2022.As for Democrats, they’ll be watching to see if their coalition of college-educated urban voters and minority voters is showing up to the polls after many minority voters sat out during the 2022 elections.

Virginia Vote Will Test Parties’ Abortion Messaging, Youngkin’s Viability for National Office

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