Voter Impatience With Rising Disorder Could Benefit Trump in November

Evidence of discontent with increasing violence and its consequences is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas.

AP/John Minchillo, file
Following George Floyd's death, protesters gather in front of a burning restaurant at Minneapolis on May 29, 2020. AP/John Minchillo, file

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Presidents Trump and Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024. 

With Governor Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses — the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Mr. Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area — aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all of Ms. Haley’s votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some at Houston voted against Mr. Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Congressman Colin Allred.

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Mr. Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe … no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. Only modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly ten million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, who is a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Ms. Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd at Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023.

Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters — 62 percent for Mr. Biden — ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters at San Francisco — 85 percent for Mr. Biden — recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters at San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of Covid confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats at New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver.

A year in which young New York Times staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Senator Cotton’s opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done at Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven Times publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences — barren and locked shelves at Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings at Washington, D.C. — is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

The disorder in America’s metropolitan centers and wreaked by illegal and un-deported immigrants on the border and as far afield as Athens, Georgia, seems to be politically overshadowing the sickening disorder wreaked by Mr. Trump’s supporters and tolerated if not encouraged by Mr. Trump himself.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall to 43 percent from 61 percent. It’s unfortunate there’s not a more fitting political beneficiary of any such recoil than Mr. Trump.

The New York Sun

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