Vulnerable Democrats Maintain Strong Approval Ratings Ahead of Fall Elections: Poll

Senate Democrats up for re-election this year are holding on to high approval ratings despite one of the most difficult maps in decades, according to a new poll from Morning Consult. Notably, Senator Fetterman has seen his stock rise as well since moving to the center on critical issues like Israel and the border. On Tuesday, Morning Consult released a poll detailing the popularity of senators with their voters back home. Every Democrat seeking another term in the upper chamber has a net-positive rating among those voters. The poll also looks at “how five incumbents — Jon Tester of Montana, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Robert Casey of Pennsylvania and Ted Cruz of Texas — are faring now compared to the same point in the 2018 cycle, when they last faced voters.”The Senate map for Democrats this year may be the most difficult to defend in recent memory. The Democratic class of 2006 saw a number of Democrats flip seats to blue from red, and they were able to hold on in 2012 thanks, in part, to the lift they got from President Obama’s re-election campaign, and in 2018, as a result of the unpopularity of President Trump. Arguably the most vulnerable of the senators — Messrs. Tester and Brown — enjoy particularly high approval ratings given that they both serve states that were won twice by Mr. Trump. Mr. Tester has a 52 percent approval rating among Montanans, while 36 percent disapprove. Mr. Brown has a 47 percent approval rating among Ohioans, compared to 35 percent who say they disapprove of his job performance. Both men are facing well-funded candidates who have the strong backing of Mr. Trump and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Mr. Tester will face a Navy SEAL and businessman, Tim Sheehy, and Mr. Brown will face a car dealership magnate, Bernie Moreno. Neither of the Republican candidates has held elected office. Two less-endangered Senate Democrats — Ms. Baldwin and Mr. Casey — similarly have net-positive approval ratings. Mr. Casey has a 46 percent positive rating, which is four points higher than the 42 percent approval he had at this time in 2018 when he last ran for re-election. In the first quarters of both 2018 and 2024, 32 percent of Pennsylvanians approved of Mr. Casey’s performance. Six years ago, Mr. Casey went on to win re-election by more than 13 points. Ms. Baldwin’s approval is narrower: 44 percent approve of her job performance compared to 42 percent who disapprove. Like Messrs. Tester and Brown, she is facing a millionaire perennial candidate in businessman Eric Hovde, who has already loaned his campaign more than $8 million. At this point in 2018, though, she had a 40 percent approval rating compared to a 42 percent disapproval. That year, Ms. Baldwin won re-election by more than 10 points just two years after Mr. Trump narrowly won the state, becoming the first GOP presidential candidate to win in Wisconsin since 1984. The only truly vulnerable Republican senator in 2024 is Senator Cruz, who has seen his disapproval rating rise sharply since he nearly lost re-election in 2018. In the first quarter of that year, his disapproval rating sat at 34 percent. Now, 43 percent of Texans disapprove of his performance. His approval rating has fallen to 48 percent from 49 percent. Among independents, Mr. Cruz’s disapproval rating has skyrocketed between six years ago and today. Thirty-four percent of independent Texans disapproved of his performance in 2018 compared to 48 percent who now disapprove. Mr. Fetterman, who is not up for re-election until 2028 but has made a national name for himself as a defender of Israel and a proponent of stronger border security measures, has seen his stock rise markedly among Pennsylvanians. Between the third quarter of 2023 and today, his approval rating has risen to 47 percent from 43 percent, and his disapproval rating has fallen to 40 percent from 43 percent. Despite the griping from some liberals about Mr. Fetterman betraying his most ardent supporters, his support among Democrats, Republicans, and independents have all increased since the Hamas attack on Israel and the senator’s subsequent vociferous defense of the Jewish state. Among Democrats, his support grew to 76 percent from 75 percent. Independents now approve of his job performance to the tune of 38 percent, compared to 37 percent who disapprove. In the third quarter of last year, 34 percent of independents supported him and 44 percent disapproved. Even among Republicans, his approval rating has increased to 21 percent from 15 percent.

Vulnerable Democrats Maintain Strong Approval Ratings Ahead of Fall Elections: Poll

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