Washington Readies for the Likelihood That Erdogan Retains Power

President Biden and the rest of Washington, along with deflated opponents of President Erdogan in Turkey, are resigning themselves to the likelihood of the longtime leader’s victory in Sunday’s national vote.The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Congressman Michael McCaul, for one, reportedly reversed his opposition to the approval of selling F-16 warplanes to Turkey, as long as Mr. Erdogan agrees to accept Sweden as NATO’s newest member. Earlier, Mr. McCaul had conditioned approval of the F-16 sale on several policy changes by Ankara, some of which seemed unlikely under Mr. Erdogan. “We’ve been assured that after the election, regardless of the winner, that Sweden will be recognized as a NATO ally,” he said, according to Politico, so Mr. McCaul’s previous “no” vote will turn to “yes.” Members of Mr. Biden’s administration, meanwhile, are “basically factoring in an Erdogan victory,” a Turkey watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Sinan Ciddi, tells the Sun. “Selling F-16s doesn’t matter that much. It’s a 30-year-old technology. If Sweden is accepted to NATO in return, that’s a good bargain.”In addition to White House pressure, the jet’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, is lobbying Congress hard to approve the $20 billion deal. As Lockheed has a long delivery backlog, the jets are not expected to arrive in Turkey for a few years. Yet, as Turkey’s inflation is rampant and the government is running out of foreign currency, outside investments are dwindling and Ankara is increasingly on the verge of bankruptcy. So Mr. Erdogan’s hold on power may not last that long even if, as is widely expected, he wins Sunday.“Most people in Turkey believe he won’t survive the five-year term, as he’ll not be able to manage the economy,” a New York-based correspondent for Hurriyet, Razi Canikligil, tells the Sun. Despite such calculations, some congressional leaders remain opposed to the F-16 deal as long as Mr. Erdogan’s authoritarian rule lasts. Few in Turkey, or outside, are confident about the fairness and transparency of the Sunday vote. According to a poll published Thursday by the Turkish group Konda, 52.7 percent of the voters support Mr. Erdogan, while 47.3 percent are backing his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Konda traditionally issues its latest surveys on the eve of the vote, and it has a fairly good track record. Yet, will voters trust the results? “So many stories floating around about voting improprieties, some plausible, some not. But without independent journalism and independent institutions, they will all just float away, meaningless gossip of the already invested,” a Turkey-watching historian at St. Lawrence University, Howard Eissenstat, tweeted Friday. During his two-decade hold on power, Mr. Erdogan has consolidated his control over the press, the courts, and the economy — which is currently in its worst shape since he was elected prime minister in 2003. Term-limited as premier, he was voted president in 2014, and later amended the constitution in a much-contested referendum, concentrating all levers of power in his hands.Like many third-world dictators, Mr. Erdogan often resorts to dictates designed to raise his appeal to local ultranationalists. Most recently he demanded all foreign governments stop using the word “Turkey” when referring to the country, replacing it with the local language “Türkiye.” Mr. Erdogan’s rival in the current contest, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu, has vowed to reverse many of Mr. Erdogan’s dictates, including a return to the previous parliamentary form of government. If he defies all predictions and ekes out a victory on Sunday after all, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu’s biggest challenge would be shoring up the economy. On Friday the Turkish currency plunged to a psychologically significant milestone, as for the first time $1 could officially be exchanged for 20 liras. Many believe the real lira value is even lower. Urbanites find it ever more difficult to catch up to inflation as prices of food, lodging, and other of life’s necessities soar. Many blame Mr. Erdogan’s policies for their plight. The president has declined to raise interest rates, as he tightened controls over the federal bank. He scared off foreign investors, demanding they partner with his own cronies in any enterprise in the country. The weakening of the rule of law became a further deterrent for outside businesses wishing to benefit from potentially lucrative Turkish markets. Despite the worsening economy, the May 14 general election disappointed many of the authoritarian president’s opponents. Since the vote the opposition became even more “amateurish,” Mr. Ciddi says. Members of the wide coalition that united to defeat Mr. Erdogan started sniping at each other. They failed to publicly expose corruption in the president’s inner circle, and showcase his many contradictory statements. Never a charismatic campaigner to begin with, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu has drifted aimlessly in the last 10 days. At the same time Mr. Erdogan’s hardcore supporters never deserted him despite the economic hardships, and are now as enthusiastic as ever. Disappointed Turks and their American and European supporters are bracing themselves for a presidency for life — unless a further economic nosedive abruptly forces out Mr. Erdogan.

Washington Readies for the Likelihood That Erdogan Retains Power

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