Welcome to Washington: Can Senator Thune Bend the House to His Will?

While the Senate isn’t expected to vote on President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act for a few more hours, it appears to be on the path to passage. Due to a number of changes made by senators over the course of the last month, the House will be required to vote again. Will the lower chamber’s critics of the legislation again acquiesce to its passage?Welcome to Washington, where over the weekend Senator Thune was barely able to pass the signature domestic package through a motion to proceed. That measure allowed senators to begin debate and the amendment process, including reforming Medicaid more aggressively through a provider tax crackdown and work requirements, changes to green energy tax credits, and, among other things, a lower child tax credit. The bill ultimately adds more to the deficit than the House version does — $3.3 trillion in total, according to the Congressional Budget Office — which could be a major concern for House conservatives when it heads back their way this week, though they were ultimately fine with the $2.4 trillion deficit increase projected for their own version. They were banking at the time that senators could make improvements, though that idea seems to have faded.For those hoping that conservatives object to these deficit increases, history tells a different story. The night before the House was due to vote on a procedural measure known as the Senate budget instructions, about two dozen conservatives huddled with Speaker Johnson to demand changes. The speaker ultimately pulled the bill after conservatives said they would vote “no.” The next morning, Mr. Thune spoke to the press to say that he would deliver more cuts in order to close the deficit gap. What he really offered, however, was no more than a pinky promise — something that has yet to materialize. The only House Republican to vote against all three key steps in this process — the House budget instructions, the revised Senate version budget instructions, and the actual bill itself — is Congressman Thomas Massie. The Kentucky libertarian is facing a full onslaught from MAGA world, which is gearing up to make an example out of him for his opposition to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, among other perceived transgressions. This past week, Mr. Massie was more than happy to talk with members of the congressional press corps for much longer than is typical of your average lawmaker, let alone one who has drawn the ire of the man who lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. After Mr. Massie voted against the Senate budget instructions — essentially just a framework that allows committees to pursue certain tax cuts and revenue generators — he knew he was on an island. “I hope it works out for them,” Mr. Massie told the Sun sarcastically of his fellow conservatives who folded for the Senate instructions with little more than a handshake agreement from senators. “The people who traded their vote for a promise — that’s just salve for their conscience.”At the time, he said they folded “because what was coming next was a lot of pressure from the president to vote for this.” This week, Mr. Massie told the Sun that he expects all of the griping House hardliners to fall in line once again in order to save themselves from pressure from congressional leadership and the administration. “There’s always time to cave,” he said with a wide smile. Mr. Massie then recalled that fateful night when the Senate instructions came up for a vote. He was the only one who saw no interest in meeting with the speaker at that time because the resolution was too flawed to even salvage at that point. “I mean, they took — there were 20 of us opposed to [the bill] a couple of months … ago. They took 19 of them in the room and [they] said, ‘Why didn’t they take you?’ I said, ‘Because I’m the designated survivor,’” Mr. Massie joked. “They’re going to vote for whatever’s put in front of them, and that’s always been the case. Trump knows this: There’s no negotiation until one side says ‘no,’” Mr. Massie said. “All the Freedom Caucus is saying now is they don’t like it.”He said that Mr. Trump is only coming after him because he wants the public fight with at least one member, so as to not anger the rest of the conservatives who have spoken out against the bill. “He has no plan to change my vote. He is trying to keep the other horses in the barn, and I’m the horse that got flogged,” he added, again smiling.

Welcome to Washington: Can Senator Thune Bend the House to His Will?

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