Welcome to Washington: Carpetbaggers Threaten To Upend 2026 Midterms in at Least Two States

The 2026 midterm elections are already kicking off, with Democrats and Republicans angling over key races in battleground states. One issue that could yet emerge for both parties is the threat posed by politicians who aren’t actually from the states in which they want to run. There are two such cases on the horizon.Welcome to Washington, where just two weeks after President Trump’s second term began, politicians are already angling for their 2026 races. Control of the Senate is going to be difficult — nigh impossible — for the Democrats this time around, given they would have to win at least three seats in states won by Mr. Trump last year, while also holding onto two seats in states that went for the 47th president.In the Democrats’ ideal world, they have to hold on to Michigan and Georgia, while also flipping seats in places like Maine, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, or Montana. Democrats, though, are far from that ideal world. They are already opening themselves up to new vulnerabilities in the must-win state of Michigan, where the former transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg, is, according to the Detroit Free Press, reportedly eyeing a run for the Senate. Mr. Buttigieg moved to the state just more than two years ago to return to his husband’s hometown of Traverse City. It was widely assumed that it was less about being close to family and more about the former secretary’s own political ambitions. There are few opportunities for a Democrat to win statewide in Mr. Buttigieg’s native Indiana, which he tried to do in 2010, only to fail spectacularly. If he were to jump into the Senate race, Mr. Buttigieg would be a top-tier candidate for at least the Democratic nomination. There hasn’t been any primary polling for the 2026 Senate race in the state. There is evidence that Mr. Buttigieg would start far ahead of other Democrats should he hop into the contest. According to a poll last year from Mitchell Research and Communications, Mr. Buttigieg was the favorite of Michigan Democrats to be their gubernatorial nominee, with 38 percent saying he would be their first choice, while secretary of state Jocelyn Benson took just 18 percent.Ms. Benson has already announced her campaign for governor, while Governor Whitmer has said she’s leaving elected life entirely in 2026 and will not run for the Senate. Mr. Buttgieg has taken himself out of consideration for the governor’s race, likely clearing the way for both Ms. Benson and Mr. Buttigieg to win their respective nominations, if they want them. If Mr. Buttigieg does run and win the nomination, it could be one of the greatest gambles Democrats take in 2026. As a resident of the state for just two years, he would be one of the most easily defined candidates of the entire cycle — a carpetbagger. Senator McCormick faced the same accusations just this past year, and it nearly worked. A longtime resident of Connecticut, Mr. McCormick was derided as the hedge fund millionaire from Greenwich, and came within 16,000 votes of losing his race out of nearly 6.8 million cast, on the day that Mr. Trump won Pennsylvania by more than 120,000. The previous GOP Pennsylvania Senate nominee, Dr. Mehmet Oz, lost his race by a wider margin than expected after he was also labeled as the millionaire from New Jersey. Mr. Buttigieg would face a similar dilemma — as the opportunist ex-transportation secretary who pops into Michigan when it’s politically convenient. That definition of him comes even before he starts discussing specific policy goals or his record overseeing President Biden’s transportation and infrastructure programs. There have been few people who were able to serve in elected office in one state, only to retire and then get elected in a different state — a warning for Democrats if they choose Mr. Buttigieg. Since the founding, just 22 people have been elected to the Senate after serving in another public office in a different state. The most recent was Senator Romney, but before that, one would have to go back to 1939 to find someone who pulled off the same feat. It isn’t just Mr. Buttigieg who may attempt a run in his adopted state. The former ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, Scott Brown, is mulling a Senate run in New Hampshire — one of the few pickup opportunities Republicans have next year. He famously won the special election to serve out the remainder of Senator Ted Kennedy’s term in Massachusetts, before losing his 2012 re-election to Senator Warren. He would then go on to narrowly lose the race for Senate in New Hampshire just two years later. “It’s no secret I haven’t been happy with what’s happening nationally … And looking at our federal delegation, they’re kind of in lockstep with those failed policies,” Mr. Brown told WMUR in January. “Is there another run? Yeah, I think so.”

Welcome to Washington: Carpetbaggers Threaten To Upend 2026 Midterms in at Least Two States

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