Hours before the government shut down last week, dozens of reporters were seated in the Senate press gallery, looking down on the chamber floor. Our eyes fixed on a small number of more moderate members who could be the last possible off-ramp to avoid the funding lapse. They ended up voting no on the procedural measure to call up the bill, allowing Senator Chuck Schumer to shore up his left flank even as the senators themselves were clearly uncomfortable with the decision. 

Welcome to Washington, where in the coming weeks Americans’ attention may again turn to that small band of Democratic institutionalists in the Senate. For now, the only plan for Republicans, they say, is to force lawmakers to vote again and again and again in the hopes that they fold. 

The majority leader, Senator John Thune, has already won the support of three Democrats — Senators John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, who has long despised shutdowns, Catherine Cortez Masto, who says a funding lapse would disproportionately harm her home state of Nevada, and Angus King of Maine, a moderate, independent member of the Democratic caucus. 

Mr. Thune needs just five additional Democrats to get on board in order to get the bill through his chamber. Those to watch include some of the lawmakers who are retiring next year, including Senators Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters, and Dick Durbin. Other senators known to despise shutdowns include Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Maggie Hassan. Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia is the only Senate Democrat facing a competitive race next year, and the GOP believes he may fold and vote to fund the government. 

The biggest winner of the government’s closure so far seems to be Mr. Schumer himself. In March, when he was one of 10 lawmakers to vote to end debate and proceed to final passage of the bill, his approval rating among fellow Democrats cratered. One Republican colleague went so far as to estimate Mr. Schumer’s popularity as being on par with a certain venereal disease. 

This time, however, his voters seem to have his back. A poll CBS News released on Sunday shows that the majority of Democrats believe in what Mr. Schumer is doing. In total, 62 percent of Democrats approve of how Mr. Schumer and other Democrats are handling the situation, while 18 percent say they disapprove. 

On the question of whether Democrats’ demands for extended health insurance subsidies as part of the funding deal are “worth” a government shutdown, 48 percent of Democrats say yes. Just 24 percent believe it is not worth shutting down the government as part of the health insurance fight. 

Republicans have been trying to paint Mr. Schumer as being out for his own personal, political bottom line, in the sense that he is battling with the president in the hopes that he can ward off a primary challenge from Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2028. 

“Here we are in a Schumer shutdown,” Senator Tom Cotton, the no. 3 Senate Republican, said at a press conference last week. “Why are we in a Schumer shutdown? I think we all know the answer to that — because Chuck Schumer is scared of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Chuck Schumer is scared of his radical left-wing base.”

He and other leaders have insisted that Democrats will get nothing in exchange for their protests. “There is nothing to negotiate. There’s no compromises to be had. There’s no games. There’s no backchannels,” Mr. Cotton declared. 

A small number of moderate Republicans led by Senator Mike Rounds have made overtures to their Democratic colleagues about dealing with the expiring health insurance tax credits by the end of the year. They insist, however, that no negotiations will take place until the government is reopened. 

Mr. Thune is sticking by that assertion, as well. As he was walking into a lunch meeting with fellow senators last week, I asked him what he thought of the burgeoning bipartisan negotiations. “Open up the government,” he said with a smile, pointing a finger in my face.

The dour mood of senators and the lack of interest in getting any substantive deal done while the government remains shuttered means this shutdown almost certainly will not be coming to an end any time soon. When it does happen — whether it be in two, three, or four weeks — it will almost certainly come from those Senate Democrats who simply get sick of the shutdown itself. Mr. Schumer, though, will have satisfied his left flank and won his Pyrrhic victory.