President Trump cleared a major hurdle this past week by getting the first draft of his “one big beautiful bill” through the House of Representatives. Based on the math, the only reason that it was able to pass is that one too many Democrats had clung to their desks and died in office. 

Welcome to Washington, where this week the House Democratic caucus shrunk by one more seat with the passing of Congressman Gerry Connolly. The longtime representative of Virginia was diagnosed with esophageal cancer just days before the 2024 election, and disclosed his illness only after he had won another term. 

While the cancer was briefly well-managed, it came back quickly last month, leading Connolly to step back from his role as the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee before his death on Wednesday. 

Less than 24 hours after Connolly’s death was announced, Republicans passed their “one big beautiful bill” — by one vote. Had Connolly been on the House floor in the early morning hours on Thursday, it likely would have been tied, meaning the bill would have failed. 

Connolly isn’t the only person responsible for the Democrats’ math problem, however. Congressmen Raúl Grijalva of Arizona and Sylvester Turner of Texas both died in office this year after receiving cancer diagnoses. Grijalva is confirmed to have died as a result of his cancer treatments, while Turner’s cancer had been in remission at the time of his death. He was known to have had other health problems. 

Had even one of these three men been alive at the time of the vote Thursday morning, the bill likely would have failed to pass. Two Republicans — Congressmen Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson, both fierce debt hawks who have made clear they do not fear the president — voted no. In protest, the chairman of the Freedom Caucus, Congressman Andy Harris, voted “present.” 

The same was true of the reconciliation bill framework that passed the House in March by a margin of two votes. At the time, Connolly was still alive and voting, though both Grijalva and Turner had died. Had the two deceased Democrats been present and voting, that measure also would have failed, ending the reconciliation process in the cradle. 

The House’s rules for filling vacancies can be tricky at times like this, imperiling Democrats even further. In the Senate, when a death or resignation occurs, the governor of the relevant state appoints a replacement within days. For House vacancies, seats are often not filled for months at a time, and with Republicans having a mere three-seat majority, every vote counts for the opposition party. 

The calendar this year is especially important for the minority leader, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries. At some point around mid-July, a debt limit deal will have to come to Congress, whether it be in the reconciliation package or as a standalone measure. Come September, a government funding agreement must be reached, and Republicans — aided by Senator Schumer’s acquiescence — may be able to get a party-line solution through Congress in what is a typically bipartisan process. 

The three deaths so far this year may already be compromising Democrats’ negotiating position. Turner’s seat won’t be filled until November. Grijalva’s district will go without representation until late September. A date has not yet been set to fill Connolly’s seat. 

Despite being the longstanding party of America’s youth, the Democrats’ gerontocracy is alive, if not always well. The average age of a Democratic senator is 66, while the average for a Republican in the same chamber is 18 months younger. The median age of House Democrats is 57.6. Among House Republicans, the median age is 57.5. 

In the last three years, nine members of Congress have died in office. Of those nine, eight were Democrats. During the last five sessions of Congress, 18 members have died in office, meaning that the average rate of passings is 3.6 per two-year term. If the numbers continue to add up this Congress, then it is more likely than not that Mr. Trump will be able to eke out some wins only because the Democrats’ gerontocracy has lived on.