What’s Next for Turkey — and How Will Washington and NATO Respond?

Turkey was once hailed as a rare democratic model in the Middle East, balancing secular governance with a multiparty system and strong ties to the West. International observers fear that may all be crumbling.The country’s political landscape is at a breaking point after last week’s dramatic arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, the leading opposition figure poised to challenge President Erdogan. Charged with corruption and terrorism, Mr. Imamoglu’s detention — alongside the mass arrest of his aides and the annulment of his academic degree — effectively eliminates Mr. Erdogan’s most formidable rival ahead of the next election. With strongman’s government also restricting access to social media, the move signals an intensifying crackdown that pushes Turkey further toward authoritarian rule. As anti-government protests continue to erupt across the country, Mr. Erdogan’s administration has warned against “illegal” demonstrations, raising fears of escalating repression. “The mayor was seen as a significant and feared challenger, so this move strongly indicates a shift towards autocracy,” Professor Sinan Ciddi of Georgetown tells The New York Sun. The newly re-elected mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, on April 18, 2024. Burak Kara/Getty Images“Mr. Erdogan has consistently closed off all avenues for a democratic transition of power,” says Mr. Ciddi, who’s also with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies “This latest action seems like the crowning achievement of that.”A Long Time ComingMr. Erdogan has strengthened his control over state institutions for over two decades, reshaping the judiciary and media landscape while consolidating political power. With the judiciary largely aligned with the government and media ownership concentrated among pro-Erdogan businesses, the space for political opposition appears increasingly restricted.The nation’s economy, however, is not immune to the ripple effects of a crackdown. Mr. Imamoglu’s arrest has triggered market turmoil in Turkey, with the lira hitting a record low before partially recovering to 40 per dollar. Istanbul’s main stock index dropped nearly 7 percent, while 10-year lira bond yields surged to 30.11 percent. The central bank held an emergency rate hike to stabilize the currency and spent $10 billion in foreign reserves after the lira plunged 12 percent. Despite nearly two years of efforts to curb inflation, it is hovering around 39 percent, exacerbated by past unorthodox monetary policies.Motivations Behind the Mayhem What does the President hope to achieve with his authoritarian-like actions?Mr. Erdogan has been in power for 22 years, serving as prime minister and president of Turkey. Under current term limits, he is ineligible to run again in 2028 unless he amends the constitution.“Erdogan’s primary motivation is preserving his autocracy. The population’s main weapon is protests and strikes to spread support for their cause throughout the country and the world,” the founder of Terner Consulting, Steven Terner, tells the Sun. A man attaches a large banner of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, in a tree at Istanbul on March 20, 2025, during a protest against the arrest of Mr. Imamoglu on corruption charges. AP Photo/Emrah GurelMr. Erdogan, however, isn’t just focused on holding power — he’s also looking to reclaim Istanbul, where he was mayor in the 1990s. The city is central to his political legacy. The President’s tightening iron grip also puts him in a more entrenched power position beyond Turkey’s borders. Ankara’s influence in the Middle East is expanding, particularly in Syria, as the primary backer of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that overthrew the Assad dictatorship. Turkey’s role in regional stability, which has included striking deals with the long-outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, has become increasingly vital to United States interests.At the same time, Ankara is seeking to leverage its security ties with Europe, particularly through its involvement in Ukraine. Turkey’s participation in military aid efforts and offer to send peacekeeping troops, combined with growing defense industry partnerships, signals its ambitions to integrate further with European security frameworks. The NATO Response As Erdogan maneuvers both domestically and internationally, how the United States and its NATO allies respond to Turkey’s deepening autocracy will shape the country’s political future and its role on the global stage.“When the European Union or Washington criticizes Erdogan, it often helps his cause. He turns that criticism on its head, accusing the West of meddling in Turkey’s internal affairs, which plays well with his base,” explained Mr. Ciddi.Turkey’s growing strategic importance amid shifting global security dynamics may make Western governments reluctant to impose serious consequences on Erdogan. As NATO’s second-largest military and a crucial player in European defense against Russia, Turkey remains an essential partner, prompting European Union leaders to tread carefully in avoiding further tensions.People wave Turkish and Palestinian flags during a pro-Palestinian protest at Istanbul. AP/Francisco SecoMr. Ciddi also underscored that Washington “hasn’t really touched on Turkey,” but that doesn’t mean Ankara is not calculated in what it hopes to gain. “Erdogan wants to get specific concessions from the U.S., like a sale of fighter jets, and he wants free reign in Syria,” he said. “He’s trying to convince Trump to pull U.S. troops out of Syria and let Turkey handle it.”Mr. Terner highlighted that X, owned by Elon Musk, now advising President Trump, “has suspended opposition accounts organizing protests at the behest of the Turkish government,” a move that worries some democracy advocates. “The international community is limited in its ability to intervene, but by refusing to condone Erdogan’s actions, it can lend important moral support to Turkish citizens and deny material support to the autocratic regime,” he said. While NATO has consistently emphasized the importance of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law as fundamental principles for its member states, Mr. Ciddi does not anticipate any changes to the status quo. “Once a country is a NATO member, it’s almost impossible to expel them, even if they become more autocratic,” he continued.Some foreign observers point out that Mr. Trump’s gestures to Putin have unsettled European leaders, pushing them to reengage with Turkey—likely at the cost of overlooking Erdogan’s tightening grip on power—in exchange for Ankara’s support against Moscow’s aggression.People hold a banner of President Erdogan as they celebrate the fall of the Syrian government at Istanbul, December 8, 2024. AP/Emrah GurelOn the flip side, this is a card that the European Union could play in its favor. “Turkey still has a stalled accession process with the European Union,” Mr. Ciddi said. “Erdogan recently called for the EU to restart talks, claiming Turkey is crucial for European security. But the EU could say that Turkey can’t join without adhering to democratic standards, the rule of law, and a free market economy. That’s something Europe could hold over Turkey.”The former editor of Turkey’s largest newspaper, Zaman, which was shut down five months before the coup attempt in 2016, Hamit Bilici, cautions that “Turkey under a dictatorship at a very pivotal location in the world will not be only a huge strategic loss for the democratic world but also a source of instability.“Of course, Turkish people have the first duty and responsibility for keeping Turkish democracy alive, but NATO, EU and other democratic institutions also have a duty to act in line with their founding values of democracy, rule of law and press freedom,” he tells the Sun. Turkey’s Future Meanwhile, citizens have limited recourse to push back against the government’s increasing control. While opposition groups continue to rally in public, the threat of arrest and legal action looms over those who speak out.“Right now, the only recourse is to protest and take to the streets. If successful, it could force Erdogan’s resignation,” said Mr. Ciddi. “But unless the Turkish population successfully pressures Erdogan out of power, I fear that today’s protesters will be labeled as terrorists. If he survives this, he will likely take harsher measures against anyone who opposes him. The political future of Turkey looks quite grim unless there’s a major shift.” Turkish soldiers carry the coffin of a victim of an attack by PKK members at a Turkish aerospace and defense company, Hasan Huseyin Canbaz, during a funeral at Karsiyaka mosque, Ankara, Turkey, October 24, 2024. Yavuz Ozden/DIA via APTurkey still holds elections, yet the system is deeply flawed, resembling a competitive regime that mimics democracy. While opposition parties remain active and public debates continue, the government controls the judiciary, restricts independent media, and uses state institutions to weaken opponents, making electoral competition highly uneven.Mr. Erdogan’s victories are often narrow, as seen in the 2023 presidential runoff, where he secured 52 percent of the vote. He has taken extreme measures to maintain power, such as annulling Mr. Imamoglu’s 2019 Istanbul municipal election win and forcing a do-over, only for Mr. Imamoglu to win by a larger margin. Mr. Erdogan’s most effective tactic, however, is imprisoning his strongest rivals.The President is now on the brink of securing his hold on power, potentially ensuring his rule by facing an opponent of his own choosing in the next election. “No one is really holding him accountable. He’s been trying to meet with Trump before the end of April, as a photo op with the U.S. president gives him increased legitimacy back home,” Mr. Ciddi added. “But I don’t have much hope that Washington will stand up to him. Ultimately, it’s up to the Turkish people to take back control.”

What’s Next for Turkey — and How Will Washington and NATO Respond?

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