With agreement reached on the first phase of President Trump’s Gaza plan and with the next stages to be negotiated later, Israelis know that even if all the plan’s points are fulfilled, dangers remain — especially from Iran — and peace will elude them. 

“We’re gonna have peace in the Middle East. Who would’ve thought,” Mr. Trump said during a Cabinet meeting Thursday. Following the June strikes on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities, he added, even Iran now “wants to work on peace.” 

Support for Mr. Trump’s deal is almost universal in Israel, and admiration for the president is uniting the country more than at any time since the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023. There are expectations at Washington and Jerusalem that as the dust settles on Gaza, new Arab and Muslim countries might join the peace circle known as the Abraham Accords.

But Mideast peace? While Gaza might be pacified according to Mr. Trump’s 20-point deal and Hamas murderers can perhaps be disarmed and no longer rule the Strip — both seemingly long-shot possibilities — Israel’s enemies remain, and will continue to pose a threat. 

In the end, “extreme Islam will not disappear,” the head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, Yossi Kuperwasser, tells the Sun. The threats to Israel include “the Iran-led axis,” including the Houthis, “the Muslim Brotherhood axis — Turkey, Syria, Qatar, and Palestinian terrorists — and a growing number of anti-Israel extremists in the West” that pose strategic challenges for the country. 

This week the Israel Defense Forces intercepted a large arms delivery sent to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Palestinian proxies in the West Bank from Iran through Jordan. The delivery, captured near Ramallah, included anti-personnel mines, explosive and surveillance drones, anti-tank rockets, rocket launchers, and personal guns with ammunition. 

The United Nations Security Council triggered a “snapback” mechanism last month that reimposes a ban on Iranian possession and manufacturing of long- and mid-range missiles, as well as a global ban on imports and exports of most weapon types. Russia and Communist China, though, refuse to abide by the resolution.

The two countries had offered “to give diplomacy a chance,” Moscow’s UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, told the council. As Europeans “killed” that process, he said, “we do not recognize” the snapback. 

This week, Russia delivered several MiG-29s to Iran, as it completed a deal to also sell the Islamic Republic more advanced Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. Chinese and Russian air defense systems are being delivered in large numbers to replace Iran’s S-400 batteries that Israel destroyed in June. The Iranians are also rebuilding their mid- and long-range missile arsenal at a fast pace.   

“Iran is developing intercontinental missiles” with a range of 5,000 miles, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told an American interviewer this week. With an addition of just less than 2,000 miles in range, he added, “they can get to the East Coast of the U.S.” and “you don’t want to be under the nuclear gun of these people, who are not necessarily rational and chant ‘death to America.’ I think Israel is doing great work at keeping that away.”

“Bibi is right to flag the growing Iranian missile range, which first by the way will cover Europe before it covers America, but that is a measure of a larger problem,” an Iran watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Behnam Ben Taleblu, tells the Sun.

At Tehran, Mr. Netanyahu’s statement was seen as a warning of a possible renewed Israeli attack. A hawkish Israeli opposition leader, Avigdor Liberman, a former defense minister, added to the speculation, saying Israelis would be well-advised to stay near shelter in case war with Iran is renewed.

Intelligence reports that a miscalculation could trigger a preemptive strike by Iran in response to the Israeli statements raised alarm bells at Jerusalem. Israel reportedly asked President Vladimir Putin to relay to the Iranian regime a message that Israel is not planning to strike Iran.  

Jerusalem, Mr. Ben Taleblu says, is slowly inching toward favoring regime change as the only way to remove the Iranian threat once and for all. At the same time, he adds, “Washington risks prematurely taking a victory lap.” If such trends continue, “there is a chance of daylight on the Iran issue” between the two countries. 

For now, Israelis, who are exhausted after two years of wars, are relishing Mr. Trump’s roadmap to a more peaceful Mideast. Many, though, are aware that despite some spectacular victories on several fronts, full peace will elude the region for some time.