Consumer prices came in as expected today, as inflation continues to soften from a 9 percent peak last year. Actually, topline inflation came in at 3.2 percent versus July a year ago, a slight increase from the 3 percent registered in June.  The so-called core rate, excluding food and energy, is still running 4.7 percent ahead of last year. 

Food and beverage prices are up 4.8 percent versus a year ago, and groceries are up 3.6 percent. So, inflation is sticky and stubborn.  

The level of consumer prices is still up roughly 16 percent over the course of President Biden’s administration. That’s the level of prices, which seldom comes down. It’s led by energy and food.  

In recent months, we’ve had a rest from energy price increases, but those may be turning back up, with AAA saying gasoline is heading toward $4 a gallon nationwide.  

Mr. Biden’s out there on the campaign trail telling us he created 13 million new jobs, but no humanoid can substantiate that number, since it has to be adjusted for returning Covid jobs. Once you add that to the mix, he really hasn’t created hardly any new jobs at all, but I don’t want to upset him. 

Manufacturing and housing are in a slump right now, and I know Wall Street says this time it’s going to be different, but once again I will point to the deeply inverted yield curve — which is upside down, with short rates much higher than long rates in the Treasury market. That indicates credit crunch potential, and the New York Fed yield curve model is showing a 65 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months.  

Also, bank stocks — a leading indicator of the economy — are down 23 percent over the past six months, another warning sign. And, I will just say, over the past six quarters or 18 months, real GDP has grown at a paltry 1.3 percent average pace, including two negative quarters in the first half of last year, which was Mr. Biden’s first full year in office. 

The only supply-side source of growth comes from the lingering Trump tax cuts, though Mr. Biden is doing his best to repeal them.  

Other than that, the Biden regulatory assault on business, along with continued overspending and of course the war against fossil fuels, have all set the stage for a continuation of what a Democrat economist, Larry Summers, years ago called “secular stagnation” — which I don’t like one bit. And I don’t think America’s buying it.  

That’s why Mr. Biden’s economic poll numbers are so incredibly low. A recession next year will sink Mr. Biden and his Democratic Party. That is, if they haven’t already dug their own deep grave of corruption.  

From Mr. Kudlow’s broadcast on Fox Business News.