After all the work by leftist reformers on forging a new constitution, could it be that the people of Chile would rather stick with the one created by the late right-wing strongman, General Pinochet? The country’s current leader, President Boric, says the proposed parchment would make Chile more democratic; opponents insist it would destroy Chilean prosperity and elevate some groups over others.

The polls are signaling that, in a referendum Sunday, the measure will go down in defeat. Critics of the new constitution that would replace the 1980 version enacted by the dictator Pinochet say it would go too far in the opposite direction, one influenced by Latin America’s pink wave that’s bringing left-wingers to power across the Western Hemisphere. 

“They went to the opposite extreme,” an economics professor at the University of Chile, Esteban Olivares, told the Sun. “None of the things the right proposed were accepted,” he added, describing attempts by Chilean conservatives to offer input on the new document. 

The new constitution would constrain the private sector; abolish the legislature’s upper house and reshape the lower chamber; establish a national health care system; and enforce gender quotas in public institutions. 

Last May more than 80 percent of the population voted in favor of changing Pinochet’s 1980 constitution. Now, however, polls show that the majority of Chileans will reject the proposal. According to top pollster Pulso Ciudadano, 45.8 percent want to reject the draft, while 32.9 percent voice approval.

Why would Chileans now disapprove after clamoring for constitutional change last year?

Chile’s economy has been on the rise since 1989. Its free-market policies — the privatization of public works, low trade barriers, and stimulating foreign investment — have turned the country into a Latin American economic powerhouse. Income disparity, however, has turned middle- and lower-class Chileans against the policies. 

In 2019, months-long demonstrations erupted around the country, initially triggered by the increase of subway fares at Santiago. Protesters demanded increased government safety networks, lowered cost of services, and equity. Amid the rise in tensions, President Piñera called for a referendum to change the constitution that, despite being amended several times, has been viewed as illegitimate because it was set by a dictator. 

In May 2021 Chileans approved a referendum that would replace the constitution. A 155-person convention was established for the task. More than half of the representatives comprised left-wing politicians and progressive-leaning independents; less than a third were from the right.

“It didn’t represent Chile,” Mr. Olivares said. The people who wrote the constitution, he said, misunderstood their role and made decisions influenced by “hate” rather than sound policies.

After 10 months of work, the new draft was presented in July. It includes onerous controls over the private sector; calls for indigenous tribes to get more legislative seats than their percentage of the population; establishes a national health care system; and forces gender parity in public institutions. It also establishes a regional chamber to replace the senate. 

Mr. Olivares said some of the proposed changes remind him of Venezuela. They would give the legislature too much power over the presidency and result in “overrepresented” indigenous groups, he said.

“When it comes to minor administrative issues, tribes will be able to decide according to their traditions, which would create a parallel legal system,” Mr. Olivares said. 

Other critics say the new constitution would give the administrative state too much control. The founder of the right-wing Republicanos party, Jose Antonio Kast, who lost to Mr. Boric in December, said that it limits personal liberties and that the authors “failed” to write a constitution that represents the people. 

Mr. Boric and others on the left enthusiastically support the new proposal. A former Chilean president, Michelle Bachelet — who just ended a much-criticized stint as United Nations human rights commissioner — approvingly told Bloomberg that the draft offers a new “social contract.”

Mr. Boric’s poll numbers are dismal, with public support topping at 38 percent since he assumed the presidency at the age of 36 in March, riding the pink wave in Latin America, where five of the largest economies now have leftist governments. Chile’s inflation reached a 28-year high and the value of the peso dropped to an all-time low. 

Chileans say that tensions are rising in their country and there has been some violence. Even though polls show that most people will reject the draft constitution, it is difficult to predict the result, as this will be the first time voting is mandatory for everyone over age 18. In the past, about 7 million people usually voted during elections; on Sunday, 14 million people are expected to vote. 

Mr. Olivares says the referendum result will be tight. There is wide agreement about one point, though: While there is a need for change, the constitution draft is “deeply flawed.”

“The convention did not write a document that represented everyone. It was written more as an act of revenge,” Mr. Olivares said. “That generated rejection.”