Why Trump Is Orchestrating a Sunni Coalition as a Buffer Against Iran’s Attempts To Revive Its Regional Proxy Armies

President Trump is orchestrating a Mideast Sunni coalition that could become a buffer against the Islamic Republic of Iran’s attempts to revive its regional proxy armies. That cause, though, will be undermined if this Middle East bloc turns into an even more threatening power than the bruised Shiite axis. On the eve of a visit by Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, to the White House on Friday, America circulated at the United Nations a proposal for a Security Council resolution that would end international sanctions imposed on the former jihadist and his aides. The new gesture is meant to rehabilitate the former terrorist once known as Abu Mohammed al Joulani, who is now enlisted by Washington to combat ISIS. Mr. Trump first met Mr. Shara during a visit to Riyadh in May. There, the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, urged the president to make peace with the new Syrian leader. As Prince Mohammed, known as MbS, prepares for his own White House visit, on November 18, Washington is moving to sell Saudi Arabia up to 48 of the world’s most advanced fighter jets. The multibillion-dollar F-35 sale, which according to Reuters has already cleared a major Department of War hurdle, is raising concerns in Israel over erosion of America’s decades-long vow to ensure that the Jewish state is better armed than all of its regional rivals. “For the first time, Israel’s military edge is in peril,” a former Israeli prime minister, Naftali Bennett, said Wednesday.At the same time, Mr. Trump’s gifts to Riyadh and Damascus are seen as part of his vision to enlist the Sunni world in blocking Tehran’s efforts to renew its expansionist ambitions across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is a leader of a pro-American Sunni bloc. Syria, if so inclined, could stop arms deliveries to Lebanon, where Iran’s formerly strongest proxy, Hezbollah, is attempting to rebuild its military powers. Yet, a strategy to recruit the region’s Sunni powers against Iran could be perilous, and end up backfiring on America. “I think Saudi Arabia is the least of Israel’s problems,” the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’s executive director, Jonathan Schanzer, tells the Sun. “As far as Syria is concerned, the problem is not Shara himself, but that he has patrons, and those patrons are problematic. Specifically, I’m talking about the Turks.”Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is hoping to revive the glory days of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey boasts the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s second-largest military force. Yet, in defiance of the bloc, it purchased S-400 air defense systems from Russia, leading America to boot it out of the F-35 program.As Mr. Trump praises his “friend,” Mr. Erdogan, the neo-Ottoman Turk now is once again hoping to equip his army with America’s most advanced jets. F-35s would boost Turkey’s air force capabilities and regional reach. That would raise even more concerns in Israel over a loss of its military edge than the sale of the advanced planes to Riyadh. Mr. Erdogan’s venomous anti-Israel rhetoric is increasing. During a religious ceremony in March he expressed the hope that Allah would “destroy and devastate Zionist Israel.” Such rhetoric matches Tehran’s decades-old goal of erasing Israel from the Mideast map.Ankara played a major role in Mr. Shara’s sweep into power at Damascus. Now, to Jerusalem’s chagrin, the Turkish military is erecting bases and airfields in Syria, including some in close proximity to the Israeli border. Prince Mohammed’s Saudi Arabia, in contrast, is modernizing and developing intelligence and business ties with Israel. Mr. Trump is hoping to complete a deal that by the end of 2025 would add MbS’s Saudi Arabia to the Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel under his first term’s Abraham Accords. “I think he’s going to join,” the president told “60 Minutes” on Sunday, referring to the Saudi prince.Meanwhile a Saudi neighbor and sometime rival, Qatar, is running a worldwide influence campaign in support of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. On Wednesday, Qatari media, including the influential Al Jazeera, were filled with proud commentary crowing about the victory of a Muslim, Zohran Mamadani, in the New York mayoral race, and of his brave defiance of “Zionists” who opposed him. The Qataris have already spent up to a quarter-million dollars in America in an influence campaign, according to the FDD’s estimates. “They’re quietly capturing the hearts and minds of decision makers and are doing that in tandem with the Turks, who are able to project a more hard power,” Mr. Schanzer says. “Together, these two countries are the Muslim Brotherhood axis.”Mr. Trump’s hopes of diminishing Shiite Iran’s influence across the region, he adds, could come “at the cost of empowering the Muslim Brotherhood bloc, which is responsible for funding, arming, and indoctrinating a whole host of bad actors across the Middle East.” Below is a list of Mideast hotspots where the Islamic Republic is attempting, and at times succeeding, to revive military power it has lost in the two years since Hamas launched a region-wide war on October 7, 2023. Yet even as Mr. Trump is attempting to bring these spots into the American fold, risks are growing that a Sunni-Islamist regional hegemony could take hold, which could hurt the interests of America and allies.SyriaMr. Trump’s envoys, led by the American ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, are trying to forge a security deal to end Syrian-Israelis hostilities. Those were launched after Shara-allied Jihadists massacred Druze and Alawite Syrians, and once Turkey started erecting positions near Israel’s borders. Short of a formal peace treaty, a new security deal between Israel and Syria could be inked as early as Friday, during Mr. Shara’s Washington visit. “Joulani’s hands are stained with American blood, and when you do business with him, you need to remember that he could renege on any deal,” the founder of the northern Israel-based Alma research center, Sarit Zehavi, tells the Sun. “At least 22 of Joulani’s top aides and generals, including his defense minister, have a jihadist past,” she says. “Israel might benefit from a deal with Syria but it needs to remain vigilant. It’s far from clear that he’d keep his end of the deal.”GazaBeyond dominating Syria, Turkey is trying to become a top power in the International Stabilization Force that is due to take over the Strip once the Washington-led 20-point plan moves to the next phase. Qatar too is hoping to be a major contributor to the Gaza reconstruction efforts. Israel insists on fully disarming the formerly Iran-backed terrorists, so it strongly opposes the presence in Gaza of Hamas-supporting Turkey and Qatar. “Obviously, as you put together this force, it’ll have to be countries that Israel is comfortable with,” Secretary Marco Rubio said last month. He spoke during a visit to the American command post at Kiryat Gat, Israel, where Americans will supervise implementation of Mr. Trump’s Gaza plan. Yet, as Washington is now pushing a UN Security Council resolution that will back the force, Israel could have less influence on its composition. LebanonAmerica is pressuring the Lebanese Armed Forces to implement the Beirut government’s declared plan to disarm Hezbollah. Tehran, though, is ratcheting up efforts to reestablish its favored terrorist organization. The first stage of the LAF plan, to be completed by the end of the year, involves collecting weapons in the area south of the Litani River, near Israel’s border. Hezbollah is resisting, but indicates it might disarm there. Hezbollah’s idea of a cease-fire involves “no military appearance on the streets, so you will not see them, but they didn’t promise to give up arms,” a Lebanese-born FDD researcher, Hussain Abdul-Hussain, tells the Sun. The hope that the Damascus-controlled army would stop Iranian deliveries of weapons through Syria to Lebanon, meanwhile, are yet to be realized. Some Damascus-affiliated Syrians, in fact, are helping the smuggling efforts to Hezbollah. YemenThe Houthis in the impoverished country on the Red Sea are now Iran’s most formidable proxy army. A semi-Shiite sect, the Houthis, who hate America and Israel, have developed an impressive domestic arms manufacturing industry. It includes ballistic missiles and drones to attack Israel, and a fleet of boats that disrupt shipping in one of the world’s most crucial waterways. A nearly 10-year Saudi-led war against the Houthis failed to degrade their military power. War-adverse Riyadh, even armed with F-35s, is unlikely now to renew military action in neighboring Yemen. IranThe Islamic Republic can hardly feed its people. Even as the country undergoes a major water crisis, the mullahs nevertheless are investing heavily in reviving their nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Tehran is defying the International Atomic Energy Agency’s attempts at renewing inspections of its facilities. While Mr. Trump has been adamant that the 12-day June war destroyed the Iranian nuclear capabilities, concerns remain. Washington is far from oblivious to such fears, which is one of the reasons that Mr. Trump is attempting to create a new Middle East architecture. If he manages to unite Sunni powers around the cause of blocking Iran’s resurrection, it would be a great victory for his foreign policy. Yet if a Sunni Jihadist axis replaces a weakened Iranian coalition, it could quickly turn anti-American, anti-Western, and anti-Israel, to the detriment of allied Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Why Trump Is Orchestrating a Sunni Coalition as a Buffer Against Iran’s Attempts To Revive Its Regional Proxy Armies

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