Will 2023 Be the Year Israel Strikes Iran?

When it comes to decisive action to end the Iranian Islamic Republic’s nuclear aspirations, 2023 is shaping up as a do-or-die year. Will the mullahs obtain their much-desired weapons of doom, or will Israel and America stop them?As the soon-to-be Israeli prime minister prepares his new cabinet for a Knesset swear-in this week, Benjamin Netanyahu may well need to soon decide on a military action targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, as a nuclear standoff that has stretched a decade and a half is reaching a boiling point.Mr. Netayahu is on the verge of having a new, hawkish government in place. President Biden’s attempt at resolving the crisis diplomatically is at a standstill, or possible “dead.” Washington is irate at Iran for arming Russia during its war on Ukraine. The Islamic Republic, meanwhile, is close to obtaining its nuclear weapons, and fast advancing to the point of no return. Iran is “days or weeks away from enriching uranium to 90 percent, which is military-grade,” an outgoing Mossad director, Zohar Palti, said in an interview with an Israeli journalist, Tal Schneider, over the weekend. Israel therefore must be prepared to soon launch military action to end the threat, he said. Someone who rarely speaks publicly, Mr. Palti has spent more than 40 years behind the scenes in the country’s security establishment. Most recently he helmed the Israeli defense ministry’s political-military bureau; before that, he was intelligence director at Israel’s foreign intelligence agency — the Mossad. He also spent a few years in America with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.Iran’s success at enriching uranium to 90 percent purity “doesn’t mean they can immediately build a nuclear weapon,” Mr. Palti said, “but it’s very bad, and we’ve never been closer.”For more than a decade, the received wisdom in Washington had it that Israel does not have the capabilities to militarily end Iran’s nuclear program. Asked if he is hinting that Israel in fact does, Mr. Palti shot back, “I’m not hinting. I’m outright saying it.” What America says is important, he said, but Israel “should rely on ourselves.” When America opposed an attack on a Syrian nuclear facility in 2007, Mr. Palti noted, Prime Minister Olmert successfully struck anyway. Menachem Begin created his namesake’s famous “doctrine” when he ordered the destruction of Iraq’s budding atomic facility at Osirak in 1981 — and did so without a nod from America. That said, America’s ultimate backing for an Israeli attack is crucial, Mr. Palti said. A decisive military strike, or strikes, on Iran’s facilities would be costly. Iran and its allies, most notably Hezbollah, would hit Israel with an enormous amount of rockets, drones, and other weapons. The Israeli economy would be crippled.Washington’s help in replenishing Israel’s military hardware, backing the country against diplomatic assaults, and perhaps even helping to cover financial losses would be crucial. Mr. Netanyahu therefore would need to keep Mr. Biden on his side. Mr. Netanyahu would have to restrain some of his government partners, who are eager to change the status quo on the Temple Mount, annex the West Bank, or take other actions that could cause Mr. Biden to turn his back on Israel in case of an attack. The prime minister has made the rounds on American television, appearances meant to calm Washington agita over his incoming government. Unlike America, where as commander-in-chief the president can order a major military action on his own, an Israeli prime minister must earn passage for any such decision in a security cabinet vote. Attacks of that magnitude must gain a majority of politicians, military, and intelligence officials. The Israeli Defense Force brass for more than a decade has been hesitant to green-light an attack on Iran. The Mossad, in contrast, has recommended an aggressive approach. Now, a moment of decision seems fast approaching.With the Iran nuclear talks on ice, and a new Israeli government coming in with a fresh mandate, “this could be the moment for Israel to act,” a former intelligence analyst at the treasury department who specialized in the Mideast, Jonathan Schanzer, told the Sun.Now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Mr. Schanzer said Mr. Biden would need to be convinced that Mr. Netayahu has acted “with the cooperation of the Israeli security establishment” for Washington to even tacitly back an Israeli “kinetic” strike. Such a strike, Mr. Schanzer adds, may require more than a single hit, as was sufficient in Syria and Iraq. “This is going to be more of a process than an event,” he said. Yet, if Tehran is to reverse its nuclear advance, it must know there is a credible threat of military force, and have a “clear sense that action could be imminent,” he said. Washington is currently attempting to address security challenges from Russia, Communist China, and bad actors at its own border. Yet, as Iran poses an existential threat to a Mideast ally, in the coming year Mr. Biden may be forced to revisit his oft-repeated vow that America “will not let Iran get a nuclear weapon.”Correction: Menachem Begin and the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies are the correct spellings of the names. An earlier version included incorrect spellings.

Will 2023 Be the Year Israel Strikes Iran?

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