Will a Trump-Prince Mohammed Alliance Usher in a Saudi Peace Treaty With Israel?

If Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to seal his friendship with President Trump, including by finalizing a deal to purchase America’s most advanced fighter jets, he might need to eventually normalize relations with Israel. Mr. Trump said on Monday that he “will be selling the F-35s” to Riyadh, but such a deal will have to be approved by Congress. There are other complications as well, including a 2008 American law that promises a “qualitative military edge” to Israel over its Mideast foes.“We are aware of that legislation, which promises us a military advantage, and we are sure that that advantage will be maintained,” the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told the Sun after Mr. Trump vowed to sell the F-35s. Members of Congress could argue that a military edge for Israel is directed at its Mideast foes. It was “always about Israel’s adversaries,” the executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Jonathan Schanzer, tells the Sun. “Their allies? Well, maybe that’s not as much of a problem.”Meeting the President at the White House Tuesday, Prince Mohammed vowed to raise the $600 billion of an already promised Saudi investment in America to “almost $1 trillion” for artificial intelligence and other technologies. “I like that very much,” Mr. Trump retorted.The president has another goal in mind, though. “He has his eyes on the Nobel Prize,” Mr. Schanzer says. “He is looking at nothing else than a transformation of the Middle East,” including by coaxing Arab and Muslim countries to join the circle of peace with Israel, known as the Abraham Accords. The prince, known as MbS, was close to joining the Accords toward the end of Mr. Trump’s previous White House stint. President Biden then vowed to make the de-facto Saudi ruler a world “pariah” over the gruesome assassination of a critic, Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. “We did all the right steps,” to investigate, Prince Mohammed said Tuesday, vowing such atrocities would “never happen again.” Mr. Trump added that Khashoggi “was extremely controversial,” and that MbS “knew nothing about” the assassination at the Istanbul, Turkey, Saudi consulate. As oil prices rose, Mr. Biden attempted to mend relations with Riyadh, but the prince seemed less than eager to make the significant step of recognizing Israel under the Democratic presidency. Things became even more complicated after the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023, which has transformed the Mideast significantly. Like in the rest of the Arab world, Saudi citizens watch endless television broadcasts of hardships in Gaza. Formalizing relations with Israel under such conditions would be politically difficult for Riyadh. While MbS said Tuesday that he wants to join the Abraham accords, he added, “we want also to be sure that we secure a clear path of a two state solution.” Eager to develop futuristic industries, Saudi Arabia has good reasons to make peace with the Jewish state. Those include a security front against a mutual foe, the Islamic Republic of Iran. Riyadh was one of the Gulf capitals that Israel has shared intelligence with even as the Gaza war was raging, according to a recent Washington Post report. So did Qatar, which is publicly at odds with Israel over its hosting of Hamas and support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Mr. Trump embraced Qatar, in part to pressure its leaders to lean on Hamas to agree to the cease-fire terms that ended most of the Gaza combat in September. Washington tightened relations with Doha by signing a mutual defense agreement after an Israeli attack on a Hamas headquarters at the Qatari capital. In his first Washington visit in seven years, MbS is hoping to sign a similar defense agreement. The Saudis see themselves as better allies to America than Doha has been. They “want to get as much as their rivals in Qatar, if not more,” Mr. Schanzer says. Purchasing F-35 jets could allow Riyadh to project regional military might. Israel is the only Mideast country that currently possesses the sophisticated Lockheed Martin-made F-35. It has upgraded the jets to fit its military needs, which will maintain its edge over the Saudi version, which would take a long time to deliver. Meanwhile, a “path” to Palestinian statehood was included in an American-backed United Nations resolution on Monday. The Gaza war seems to be winding down, and Muslim countries, like Indonesia, could soon join the Abraham Accords. MbS’s full alliance with Mr. Trump depends in part on eventually formalizing Saudi relations with Israel.

Will a Trump-Prince Mohammed Alliance Usher in a Saudi Peace Treaty With Israel?

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