Could President Trump’s next move in respect of the Israel-Iran conflict spell the end of MAGA as we know it? 

The 47th president’s support for Israel’s targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities brought to the surface long-running tensions between MAGA and its isolationist wing. Now, as speculation rises that Mr. Trump may call up the American military to deliver a final blow to Iran’s nuclear program, MAGA infighting threatens to boil over. 

“If he pulls the trigger, it’s all over for MAGA,” the director of Big Data Poll, Rich Baris, predicted. “Kiss the Republican majority goodbye … For the next decade,” Mr. Baris, whose polling company was recognized for its accuracy in the 2020 election, added. 

Mr. Baris’s stark warning comes as the president has dropped mixed messages on whether America will directly assist Israel in its effort to obliterate Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Namely, Israel has sought to convince the president to help Israel destroy an Iranian uranium enrichment site in Fordo that may be buried too far underground for the Israeli military to reach. 

With direct American involvement in the war emerging as a real possibility, members of the MAGA right — including some of the president’s most loyal supporters — have turbo-charged their opposition both online and in Congress. 

A former Fox News host, Tucker Carlson, was among the first MAGA supporters to break with the president on the issue, publishing a newsletter just hours after Israel’s initial attack in which he accused Mr. Trump of being “complicit” in Jerusalem’s “act of war.” Over the weekend, the president responded on Truth Social by branding Mr. Carlson “kooky” and insisting that “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!” 

By Monday, Mr. Carlson took an even stronger stance. “I think we’re gonna see the end of the American empire,” Mr. Carlson said, referring to the possibility of direct American involvement in the war, while appearing on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. While Mr. Carlson softened the blow of his criticism by praising the president — who he said “I actually really love” — he predicted that Mr. Trump’s next move could “effectively end” his presidency. 

In a similar escalation, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene first hinted at her position on the conflict on Saturday by sharing on X the brief statement “America First.” By the following day, Ms. Greene’s messages were far less subtle. 

“Anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA,” she shared on X. “We have spent TRILLIONS in the Middle East and we have dealt with the aftermath of death, blown apart bodies, never ending suicides, and disabling PTSD.” 

Ms. Greene even rebuffed the president’s criticism of Mr. Carlson, posting on Monday that it’s not “kooky” to believe that “foreign wars/intervention/regime change put America last, kill innocent people, are making us broke, and will ultimately lead to our destruction.” She added: “That’s what millions of Americans voted for. It’s what we believe is America First.” 

Other prominent figures on the right have similarly come out against American involvement in the war, including a former White House chief strategist, Steve Bannon, a former representative, Matt Gaetz, and Representative Thomas Massie, who on Tuesday filed a House resolution to block America from engaging in “unauthorized hostilities” with Iran. “This is not our war,” he shared on X while announcing the measure. 

A poll conducted by the Ronald Reagan Institute before Israel’s blitz attack on Iran concluded that a majority of Republicans support Israel launching airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails. However, the poll does not offer insight on the question of American involvement. 

Some MAGA influencers have been egging on the division, like a right-wing social media bigwig, Laura Loomer, who called on her 1.7 million followers on X: “Take screenshots of every single right winger who is s— talking Trump right now.” She instructed them: “Post them under this post. I have most of them. But I don’t want to miss any.”

Others, like a pro-MAGA commentator, Charlie Kirk, are trying to take the temperature down a notch. “President Trump knows his base,” he shared on Monday. “Have some faith in his ability to handle this. His whole life has led to this moment.”