Will Florida’s Supreme Court Save Ron DeSantis on Abortion?

Even as some hail the Heartbeat Protection Act as a signature legislative win, Governor DeSantis’s signature on the Florida bill prohibiting abortion after six weeks is prompting consternation about his viability as a presidential candidate. For Mr. DeSantis, help could come from an unexpected place: Florida’s supreme court, which, a year after Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, could yet rule that the state’s — if not America’s — constitution establishes a woman’s right to abort. The Sunshine State governor has gone mum on the move — which was signed in his office rather than at one of the governor’s public ceremonies — beyond a statement issued at 11:11 p.m. saying: “We are proud to support life and family in the state of Florida.” It passed by a margin of 70 votes to 40 in Florida’s house of representatives. It was previously approved by the senate. The Republican representative who led the push for the ban, Jenna Persons-Mulicka, was more effusive, arguing, “We have the opportunity to lead the national debate about the importance of protecting life and giving every child the opportunity to be born and find his or her purpose.” Florida’s house minority leader, a Democrat named Fentrice Driskell, fumed, “If we don’t want FL’s present to become America’s future, we must stop him in ’24.” She accused the governor of “hoping Floridians won’t notice he stripped away a right most people agree with.” The governor’s clandestine approach suggests that his all but declared candidacy will not march under that restrictive banner. Mr. DeSantis might not be forced to carry that burden, though, if Florida’s supreme court hands him the opposite of a Pyrrhic victory: a defeat that could double as an antidote to an incipient political headache.The stage is set for that possibility because Florida’s high court is weighing whether the ancien régime — which banned abortion after 15 weeks rather than six — is crosswise with the state’s constitution. The briefing schedule indicates that a decision is expected after Florida’s legislative session, which concludes May 5. Signs are already beginning to emerge that the ban will pose problems for Mr. DeSantis, who will have to go through President Trump to claim the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. A top GOP donor, Thomas Peterffy, took to the Financial Times to announce that for the time being his purse strings are closed to the governor because of “his stance on abortion and book banning.”There are indications that opposition to the new policy extends beyond the gilded ranks of elite donors. A poll of Florida voters conducted by the University of North Florida found 75 percent of respondents either “somewhat” or “strongly” opposed a six-week ban, including 61 percent of Republican voters.The challenge to the 15-week abortion ban — which is being mounted by defenders of the procedure — is rooted in Florida’s constitution. Article I, Section 12, which ordains, “Every natural person has the right to be let alone and free from governmental intrusion into the person’s private life except as otherwise provided herein.”The case arrives at Florida’s high court after a yo-yoing journey through the lower state courts. A county judge, John Cooper, accepted the notion that banning abortion is a form of “government intrusion,” and enjoined the 15-week prohibition from going into effect. An appellate court rejected that reading, holding that the existence of a ban was not enough to demonstrate the requisite “harm” to levy an injunction. In agreeing to hear the case, the Florida supreme court also agreed to let the ban stand in the interim, keeping the ruling of the appeals court intact until it renders a final verdict. If the high court validates Judge Cooper’s finding that the 15-week version of the ban “violates the privacy provision of the Florida Constitution,” then the six-week incarnation will fall as well.Mr. DeSantis is poised to point his fifth jurist to the high court, with the Florida Supreme Court Judicial Nominating Commission announcing that he is set to interview 15 candidates at Orlando on May 3. He will then have 60 days to name someone to the bench. Seven judges sit on the supreme court. The new abortion ban goes into effect as Mr. DeSantis’s inchoate presidential bid faces stiffening headwinds. This week, three members of Florida’s congressional delegation announced their support for Mr. Trump while the governor was visiting the District of Columbia.

Will Florida’s Supreme Court Save Ron DeSantis on Abortion?

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