Will India and America Cut a Tariff Deal That Could Launch a Project To Promote Trade, Weaken China, and Pacify the Mideast?

With Prime Minister Modi set to visit Saudi Arabia, can his most ambitious global project help ease some of America’s trade woes, weaken Communist China and Iran, and pacify the Mideast in the process? Mr. Modi’s April 22-23 summit with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman could reignite a project known as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Reaching an agreement with New Delhi could top Washington’s wish list as President Trump weighs tariff-reducing deals with friendly countries while intensifying the trade war with Beijing.“If India is smart enough to make a trade deal with the U.S., and the key word here is smart enough, then, between the two of them, the sky is the limit, because that’s exactly what President Trump has told his officials,” the executive editor of India’s Hindustan Times, Shishir Gupta, tells the Sun. Tech giants like Apple are seeking to deepen relations with India in order to blunt the business blow from Mr. Trump’s 145 percent tariff on Communist China. What, then, would be the best way to deliver iPhones from places like Chennai, India, to Europe and America? The IMEC initiative, which was launched just before the Mideast-wide war that began October 7, 2023, could revolutionize trade routes and create a counterbalance to Beijing’s global influence project known as the Belt and Road Initiative. While proposed during President Biden’s presidency, Mr. Trump — who has a warm spot for Mr. Modi — has embraced it. “I think our relationship is the best it’s ever been between two leaders of the two countries,” Mr. Trump said as he hosted the Indian premier on February 14. IMEC, he said, is “one of the greatest trade routes in all of history.” America has already started funding the project, he added, “but we’re going to be spending a lot more in order to stay advanced and stay the leader.”The route “will run from India to Israel, to Italy and onward to the United States, connecting our partners by ports, railways, and undersea cables,” Mr. Trump said. Yet, many stumbling blocks must be overcome for the project to even start. The planned route starts at Kandla port in India’s Gujarat state. From there it goes to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. To evade the Houthi-besieged Red Sea, it continues via train containers to Jordan and to Israel. From the Haifa port, which is run by India’s Adani group, IMEC continues by sea to Europe or directly to America. One problem: European ports — Naples, Marseille, and Piraeus — are competing over where products would enter the continent. Another: Beijing is attempting to establish an alternative route to IMEC through its ally, Pakistan. This route could meet a lot of difficulties, though, as instability persists, including unrest on the Pakistani-Afghan border.Beijing’s Road and Belt route, though, might serve as a catalyst for America and the other IMEC principles to finalize the project — and overcome Mideast political tensions. While the UAE has ties with Israel, the Saudi crown prince, known as MbS, is yet to sign on to Mr. Trump’s vision of adding Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords.Will IMEC fail because of Riyadh’s resistance to Israel normalization? “I can’t tell what the Saudis will agree to,” a well-connected Israeli official tells the Sun. Even without formal relations, though, the Saudis have allowed Israeli planes to fly over their airspace, he says. They even found quiet, indirect ways to trade with the Jewish state. At Riyadh, Mr. Modi will undoubtedly lean on the Saudis to allow the project to take off despite his opposition to Israel normalization. “Mohammed bin Salman has made it very clear that his interest lies in Saudi Arabia, not with Hamas,” Mr. Gupta says. “I see no reason why these two can’t actually come up with a sort of an agreement purely on the basis of trade rather than on political basis.”The crown prince’s top goal is to revolutionize the country’s economy and society. Becoming a trade hub is on top of his to-do list, and “IMEC is the key to the entire thing,” Mr. Gupta says. While meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu Monday, Mr. Trump might have hinted at a measure of order behind his chaotic world-wide trade war. “We take good care of our friends, and we don’t take care of our enemies,” he said. “We’re not taking care of our enemies anymore, but we do take care of our friends.”If indeed that is his policy, the IMEC project could prove a breakthrough, involving friends like Mr. Modi, MbS, and Mr. Netanyahu, among others — and countering Beijing while further weakening the top Mideast disruptors at Tehran.

Will India and America Cut a Tariff Deal That Could Launch a Project To Promote Trade, Weaken China, and Pacify the Mideast?

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