With Blinken at Riyadh for a Summit on Gaza War, Will a Saudi-Israeli Peace Deal Come Into Focus?

Secretary Blinken is at Riyadh, where he plans to meet regional leaders on Monday for a summit on post-war rehabilitation of Gaza. Yet, could President Biden’s mixed signals on the region undermine his more crucial goal: a Saudi-Israeli peace deal?Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will preside over the Monday meeting. In addition to Mr. Blinken, guests will include the British foreign minister, David Cameron, and representatives of the European Union, Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, and the Palestinian Authority, Bloomberg reports.One glaring absence: Israel, which currently has more sway over Gaza than these summiteers, is not invited. Bloomberg dutifully notes that no Hamas delegation is invited either. Yet, whereas Hamas is despised at Riyadh, Prince Mohammed is deeply involved in the American push for a deal with Israel, which reportedly was close to completion before the terrorist attacks of October 7. Mr. Blinken’s current Saudi trip is likely the last opportunity for the administration to complete that deal, which could become Mr. Biden’s most — or even only — successful foreign policy achievement. Handling the complexities of a Saudi-Israeli deal at the height of a contentious presidential campaign would be very difficult.The Saudis may also prefer to delay a major strategic decision until after the November election. Last month, when an avid promoter of a Saudi-Israeli deal, Senator Graham of South Carolina, visited Riyadh, he put the crown prince, known as MbS, on the phone for a quick chat with President Trump. Mr. Graham also consulted the national security adviser, Jacob Sullivan, during his Riyadh trip. He argues that a Saudi-Israeli deal is more important than politics. As he told CNN, “Biden will get credit. Trump will get credit. I will get credit. Jake would. All of us. All boats rise.”Yet, memories of the complex history between Riyadh and Mr. Biden may complicate the effort. Also, Washington’s treatment of Israel — its most reliable Mideast ally and the Middle East’s most powerful anti-Iran power — may also prove to be a setback.One day, Mr. Biden is “very supportive of Israel’s war in Gaza, and in the next he is criticizing” Prime Minister Netanyahu, a Foundation for Defense of Democracies Mideast watcher, Jonathan Schanzer, tells the Sun. “The messaging is hard to understand. It is bipolar, schizophrenic, and that hits close to home for the Saudis. It’s not that long ago that this administration did it to them.”The administration is reportedly now retreating from its intention to sanction three Israel Defense Force battalions. Earlier, Washington officials leaked to favored news outlets that they intended to use a measure known as the Leahy Law to sanction the Netzach Israel battalion for 2-year-old allegations of abuse in the West Bank.After being accused of human rights violations, the unit was reassigned to Gaza, where it has been fighting Hamas since October 7. Now Mr. Blinken seems convinced that proper measures have been taken to address the issue. “Israel will be able to receive the full amount appropriated by Congress,” he wrote to Speaker Johnson, according to ABC News. Yet the story, and the allegations that IDF troops unjustly kill innocent Palestinians with impunity, has already been spread. “Saudis parrot this kind of criticism in their media,” Mr. Schanzer says. Also, because much of Washington’s criticism is focused at Mr. Netanyahu, he adds, the administration seems to be promoting a pact between certain leaders, rather than between the Saudi and Israeli states.Meanwhile it is far from a Mideast secret that the Saudis are already cooperating with Israel on security and in other fields. As Iran attacked with hundreds of drones and missiles earlier this month, the Saudis reportedly gave Israel real time intelligence.A formal recognition and a peace treaty are a different matter, and for that Riyadh wants a lot from America, including a uranium enrichment facility in the country and a mutual defense treaty. Such a pact would require the approval of the Senate, where a two-thirds majority would be difficult to amass in an election year. The Saudis might hold off until November. Although Mr. Trump declined to retaliate when the Iranian-backed Houthis hit a major Saudi oil field in 2019, Riyadh might also feel more comfortable with the former president than with the current one. An investment firm owned by a close adviser to Mr. Trump, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, forged a $2 billion strategic relationship with Riyadh’s Public Investment Fund.Mr. Kushner has struck a friendly relationship with Prince Mohammed. “I know the person who I dealt with,” he said. “I think he’s a visionary leader. I think what he’s done in that region is transformational.” Before a famous 2022 fist bump with MbS, in contrast, Mr. Biden vowed to end all arms sales to Riyadh and vowed to make the Saudis “the pariah that they are.”

With Blinken at Riyadh for a Summit on Gaza War, Will a Saudi-Israeli Peace Deal Come Into Focus?

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