Even as European countries are threatening to block weapons sales to Israel, concerns about Russia are leading them to boost defense investments, which in turn leads them to seek arms deals with Israeli defense companies. Which side, then, would be harmed most by an arms embargo? 

“We are looking for more pressure on Russia than the European Union did,” Chancellor Merz of Germany said Thursday at the Oval Office, where he met President Trump. As part of that pressure, Germany and other European countries are looking to beef up their militaries. 

One very attractive shopping destination is a country that for a year and a half, and decades before that, has been involved in a hot war and has marked numerous military victories. Israel’s battlefield record could explain its impressive boost in arms sales around the world, which last year reached a record $14.8 billion.

“The new record in Israeli defense exports, achieved during a year of war, reflects more than anything else the growing global appreciation for Israeli technology’s proven capabilities,” Israel’s defense ministry director-general, Amir Bar’am, said this week. 

More than half of those sales were to Europe, where defense expenditures significantly rose after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Some 128 new arms contracts were signed by European countries and Israel in the two years since war hit the heart of the Continent. 

Even as European leaders admire the high interception rate of the Iron Dome and other major Israeli innovations, though, their constituents are souring on Israel’s Gaza war conduct.

“We will decide in the next couple of days if we need to harden our tone and take concrete steps regarding Israel,” the increasingly Israel-averse president of France, Emmanuel Macron, said at Paris Thursday. 

The left-leaning government of Spain, one of the harshest Israel critics in Europe, announced on Thursday that it would cancel a $325 million contract for anti-tank missiles with a subsidiary of a top Israeli defense company, Rafael. The goal, a Madrid spokesman said, is “a total disconnection from Israeli technology.”

That goal might not quickly materialize, though. Just before October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched its war, Spain signed a contract to purchase 168 Israeli Spike LR2 anti-tank missiles. Has it reneged on the deal? “As yet, cooperation with Spain continues unabated,” a Rafael spokesman, Yoav Turgeman, said Thursday, noting the company was not notified of any cancellation. 

Finding alternative vendors, Mr. Turgeman notes, is a lengthy process that could take more than seven years. Training troops on arms systems that are different than the ones they’re used to can be tough, he said, adding that “our missiles’ range is 35 miles, while the American and French equivalents are no more than nine miles.”

Germany, formerly Europe’s staunchest defender of Israel, also signals willingness to ban arms sales from that country. Israel’s Gaza war “can no longer be justified as a fight against Hamas terrorism,” Herr Merz said last week. His foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, said Berlin is now examining relations with Israel, and “if necessary, we will authorize further arms deliveries based on this examination.”

That probe was apparently short-lived. Speaking at the Bundestag Thursday, Herr Wadephul reminded Hamas-supporting legislators that in addition to Gaza, Israel is under attacks from the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iran. “Germany will continue to support Israel, including with weapons deliveries,” he said.

Ignoring Berlin’s threats, meanwhile, Israel signed a $4.3 billion deal recently to supply Germany an anti-missile system it has developed with America. It was the Jewish state’s largest ever arms deal. It will deliver to Germany multiple Arrow 3 interceptor batteries and advanced radar and command systems. It will also commit to long-term tech support and training for German forces. 

As noted by an Israeli blogger, Eran Efrat, Germany’s arms sales to Israel, worth less than $190 million annually, amount to a fraction of that mega-deal. “Now you decide: Who is threatening who with an arms embargo,” he writes. 

At Mr. Trump’s urging, European countries are now fulfilling their past North American Treaty Organization goal of spending 2 percent of gross national product on defense. The president is scheduled to travel to a summit of the alliance members at Brussels next week.

For the first time in NATO history, “every ally will hit or exceed the two percent mark, many surpassing four percent, with a shared commitment to reach five percent over the next decade,” the U.S. mission to the alliance writes on X. 

Much of that new defense investment will likely be spent in countries that are not only threatened by war, but are experiencing enemy assault. European armies are impressed with Ukraine’s latest drone successes in Russia. Bombastic critique of the Gaza war aside, they’re also flocking to benefit from Israel’s battlefield victories.