With Congressman Lee Zeldin surging in recent polling and touring extensively in the Empire State, New Yorkers from Buffalo to Montauk are wondering: Could New York go Republican?

A recent poll from Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage says yes. At least if Mr. Zeldin can rally a few more points before November.

They found that Mr. Zeldin trailed Governor Hochul by only 5 points, 43.4 percent to 47.8 percent, with nearly 7 percent undecided. For reference, Governor Cuomo won the 2018 election with roughly 60 percent of the vote.

The chief pollster at Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, admitted that he knew the results were “surprising” given New York’s deep-blue leanings, but credited it to growing support for nonincumbent candidates.

He tweeted that they have “seen a big shift in favor of non incumbents since #Biden announced his #studentloanforgiveness package,” following the polling. “No other issue this cycle has enraged middle and working class voters more than this.”

While this poll is definitely an outlier, with an average of polling kept by Real Clear Politics tracking Ms. Hochul at nearly 15 points ahead of Mr. Zeldin, it has put some wind in the sails of the GOP gubernatorial hopeful.

Mr. Zeldin is touting the results claiming that “people are fed up with Hochul’s feckless leadership,” in a statement promoting his new tour of New York.

“There is no county too big or too small, and we will continue to reach New Yorkers all throughout our state who are hitting their breaking point under one part rule and Kathy Hochul,” he said.

Just this past week Mr. Zeldin visited Albany, Onondaga, Broome, Chemung, Steuben, Chautauqua, Erie, Monroe, and Livingston counties. 

On Monday he is participating in the West Indian Day Parade in Brooklyn. On Tuesday he will be across the East River at Manhattan, for an evening event with The New York Sun.

Just last night Mr. Zeldin journeyed to New Jersey for a fundraiser with President Trump where he compared himself to Governor Pataki, New York’s last Republican governor, who shocked the state with an underdog win in 1994.

“The prediction was that George Pataki was going to lose by 11.5 points,” Mr. Zeldin said, according to a recording obtained by the New York Post. “And that wasn’t on Labor Day weekend — that was the week before the election.”

Although Mr. Zeldin and his campaign have gained some momentum in recent weeks, there is no doubt that he still faces a tough road ahead. That’s because Ms. Hochul has a big lead in funding, according to the latest New York Campaign finance filings that show Ms. Hochul with an $11.7 million warchest compared to Mr. Zeldin’s $1.6 million budget.

Democrats also enjoy a large numerical advantage in New York. The latest party enrollment data shows that there are about 6 million registered Democrats and just more than 3 million Republicans.

About 3 million voters are either unaffiliated or registered with other parties, which means that Republicans will have to win over independents and likely some Democrats to win, at least according to Congressman John Faso, who himself ran for governor of New York in 2006.

“Given the enrollment advantage Democrats have in NYS, any Republican candidate needs to win a majority of these swing voters to succeed,” he tells the Sun, adding that the poll shows Mr. Zeldin “is in a strong position to make this a close race post-Labor Day.”

Mr. Faso contests that the election will be won or lost on the issues of crime, taxes, and cost of living, though there is another issue looming over the race in New York that could hurt Mr. Zeldin’s chances.

Abortion, specifically following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, has risen to become a major issue in elections this year, and there is some evidence that it is already affecting elections in New York.

In New York’s special elections in August, Democrats pulled off a surprise win in the 19th district and put on a strong performance in the 23rd district. The most widely accepted explanation for this performance has been the renewed focus on abortion in America, an issue where Democrats are squarely in the majority.

In New York, some 64 percent of adults believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases whereas 32 percent think it should be illegal, according to Pew Research data.

Even New York’s last Republican governor, Mr. Pataki, supported abortion rights, a fact that is often brought up in discussions on his unsuccssful foray into national politics in 2016, when he ran for president.

A political scientist at John Jay College, Brian Arbour, expects that abortion could be a weak point for Mr. Zeldin this year, though he does see cost of living and inflation to be at the top of voter’s minds.

“The hard part for Zeldin is ‘what’s the case against Hochul?’ The case against Andrew Cuomo was much easier to make,” he tells the Sun. “Most of the things that are wrong — or right for a portion of voters — about Kathy Hochul is that she’s a Democrat.”