Hall of Fame horse trainer D. Wayne Lukas turns 90 this fall but still manages to produce some surprises when it’s time for the Triple Crown season to start. This year is no different.

With all eyes focused on Bob Baffert and his return to the Kentucky Derby this year, Mr. Lukas has stolen some of the early spotlight by qualifying one long shot for the 151^st Run for the Roses and potentially adding another if all goes well in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby.

Mr. Lukas has entered Caldera in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, the first of the seven qualifying races offering 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five finishers. Also on Saturday, the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park in Florence, Ky., has 200 points at stake.  The top 18 horses in the points standings automatically qualify for the Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs.

Caldera is a 5-1 favorite after losing by a nose to Getaway Car at the Sunland Derby. The early choice is John Hancock, at 7-5, trained by Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. Sired by Constitution, he is unbeaten in two starts with plenty of speed. But Mr. Lukas has been defying the odds lately.  He won his seventh Preakness last year with Seize-the-Grey, a 9-1 choice. To prove he’s still got the magic touch, Mr. Lukas made an early statement last weekend when American Promise, at 8-1, captured the Virginia Derby in dominating fashion. With 55 points, American Promise is assured of being among the top 18 qualifiers.

With jockey Nik Juarez aboard, American Promise won by  7 ¾ lengths ahead of Render Judgment, trained by last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Ken McPeek, and Omaha Omaha.  Getaway Car, trained by Mr. Baffert, was a distant fourth.

“This is a typical case of a horse that was in a growth spurt like he is, big and rangy,” Mr. Lukas said  of American Promise after the race. “He didn’t actually know what was expected, like a big, rangy kid. But the last 30 days, he has really come around, and I expect him to get better the next 30 days.”

If Caldera, sired by Liam’s Map, can finish first or second, Mr. Lukas will have at least two horses in the Derby, which he won in 1988, 1995, 1996, and 1999.  Mr. Baffert, a six-time Derby winner, returns after missing the last three Kentucky Derbys while serving a suspension for a failed drug test that ultimately disqualified 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit.

Mr. Baffert seems determined to have multiple entries in the Derby. He already has Citizen Bull in the field with 60 points and Getaway Car on the brink with 46 points. Coal Battle, trained by Lonnie Briley, currently leads the points standings with 70, while Own Almighty, trained by Brian A. Lynch, is second with 65.

This is the time of year when trainers plot out what races to enter each horse, searching for the best circumstances to earn the most points. Among the considerations are rest, travel, and track conditions.  The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park will have featured fields next weekend and establish an early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. 

Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty, trained by William Mott, figures to headline the Florida Derby. Mr. Baffert, who may enter Madaket Road in Florida, could have several horses in the Arkansas Derby including Citizen Bull, Barnes, Gaming Rodriguez, and Cornucopian.

“The fact that Bob Baffert chose to ship Cornucopian out of California to Oaklawn Park for his (stakes) debut points to the fact he’s likely going to make his next start in the Arkansas Derby,” NYRA Bets handicapper Matthew DeSantis said. “Baffert is not afraid to set young horses up into the deep waters if they have talent as he did with Justify who had only three starts prior to winning the Kentucky Derby.”

Mr. Lukas was among those who publicly expressed that he missed competing against Mr. Baffert in the Kentucky Derby. It already seems like old times.