All of a Sudden, Turkey’s Recep Erdogan Is on the Upswing

Turkey’s strategic location has historically positioned it as a political bridge between competing interests. As Putin’s war on Ukraine rages, Erdogan appears to shine in that middle-man role. 

The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, and Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, at Ankara March 9, 2022. AP/Burhan Ozbilici

After being down for so long, one of the most mercurial leaders on the world stage, President Erdogan, is all of a sudden on the upswing — again. 

Assuming the premiership at Ankara in 2003, Mr. Erdogan vowed to conduct a foreign policy based on the slogan “zero problems with the neighbors.” Soon afterward, his Turkey was at odds not only with all neighbors, but with America and other top powers. 

Presiding currently over a sinking economy and public disapproval, Mr. Erdogan is pushing a new — or recycled — slogan: “circle without problems.” 

At Antalya today, Turkey hosted the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba. The attempt at ending the Ukraine war diplomatically failed spectacularly, but it positioned Mr. Erdogan as a player able to make inroads to both sides. 

At Ankara yesterday Mr. Erdogan also gave the red-carpet treatment to President Herzog of Israel. Until recently, Mr. Erdogan was making outrageously anti-Israel and even anti-Semitic statements almost daily. Yesterday the Turkish Islamist stood at attention as the Israeli national anthem, “Hatikvah,” was played with a 21-gun salute booming in the background. 

Mr. Erdogan is making inroads to other regional leaders with whom he has often clashed, including those from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. He is even looking to repair relations with Armenia, which accuses Turks of committing genocide in 1915. 

Turkey’s strategic location has historically positioned it as a political bridge between competing interests of Europeans, Asians, and Middle Easterners. As President Putin’s war on Ukraine rages, Mr. Erdogan appears to shine in that middle-man role. 

Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones sold to Ukraine have proved an effective tool in attacks on Russian forces. At the same time, after angering NATO allies with the purchase of Russian-made S-400 anti aircraft systems, Turkey maintains strong relations with Moscow and condemns sanctions against Russia. 

In another move to satisfy all sides, Turkey last week announced that it would invoke the 1936 Montreux Convention to limit ship movement through its straits to the Black Sea. Washington applauded the decision as a measure that would stop Russian vessels from reaching the Ukrainian front. Moscow also cheered, though, seeing it as limiting NATO’s access to the war zone. What a hat trick for Mr. Erdogan.

The Israeli president’s visit to Ankara marks a new record for Mr. Erdogan, whose entire time in office has been marked by foreign policy flip-flops. Israelis were awed by the opportunity to repair ties with Turkey. After all, before Mr. Erdogan’s Islamist Party assumed power, Ankara was one of the Jewish state’s allies. 

Israelis, though, also urged caution: Although Mr. Erdogan now talks about economic ties with Jerusalem and asks followers to avoid making anti-Semitic remarks, he still hosts Hamas terrorists and maintains ties with Iran. Some also caution that Mr. Erdogan may use Jerusalem to get to Washington.

“Erdogan hopes that normalization with Israel will burnish his relations with Washington,” a former member of the Turkish parliament, Aykan Erdemir, now with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, says. 

In a call with President Biden today, Mr. Erdogan asked to use White House influence to end the 2019 sanctions that the American Congress placed on the sale of upgraded F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.

Mostly, Mr. Erdemir adds, “Erdogan does all this for political purposes.” 

Next year Turkey is scheduled to have a presidential and parliamentary election, and Mr. Erdogan “has never looked so bad in polls since assuming power in 2003,” according to Mr. Erdemir. 

In the latest polls, Mr. Erdogan’s approval numbers — sitting below 40 percent — are at levels to which Mr. Biden himself has plunged in some recent tallies. Turkey’s economy is in shambles, suffering from inflation that has, at 54 percent, reached a 20-year high. Mr. Erdogan refuses to raise interest rates, the charging of which is frowned upon by Islamic tradition. 

Meanwhile, Mr. Erdogan’s Turkey veers further away from freedom, with its number of incarcerated journalists one of the world’s highest and rules that increasingly forbid criticism of the leadership. Turning to foreign policy is Mr. Erdogan’s way of diverting the public’s attention away from such domestic woes.

After being in power for so long, Mr. Erdogan is widely expected to cling to his post even if he loses. Whether he wins one way or the other, he is likely to drop Turkey’s renewed role on the world stage once the election is over. As he has changed tack so often during his presidency, expect Mr. Erdogan to return to a belligerent approach to his region and beyond. 


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