The Belmont: As With Politics, Horse Handicapping Becomes Easier as Field Thins

The first leg of horse racing’s triple crown, the Kentucky Derby, is hard to handicap. It’s like trying to predict the winner from a long list of candidates vying for their presidential nomination a year before the vote. The third leg, Saturday’s race at Belmont, New York, is much easier, like handicapping the primaries after half the candidates have quit.Keep in mind that as in politics, racing has its dark side. Last week the world’s most famous track, Churchill Downs, where the Derby is run on the first Saturday in May, suspended all racing. That was after the as-yet-unexplained deaths of 12 horses. This has raised the public scrutiny of the sport of kings. Also as in politics, racing can produce, well, dark horses. The Derby is so unpredictable because it usually features as many as, say, 20 entries. There, a publicly unknown entrant akin to, say, politics’ Vivek Ramaswamy often emerges a surprise winner out of an overly crowded pack. That’s what happened this year, when the Derby winner was a 15-to-1 relative unknown, Mage. His trainer, Gustavo Delgado, was well known in his native Venezuela, but is — or was — widely unfamiliar to American bettors. In the Derby, two entries were scratched at the last moment. They included the favorite, Forte, who reportedly bruised his right front hoof a day before the race. Unlike in presidential primaries, where dropouts rarely resurrect their campaigns, Forte is now back.Not only that, but he is listed as an odds-on favorite in Saturday’s nine-horse Belmont Stakes. As of this writing, Forte’s odds are five to two, which is worth a win bet on a legitimate front runner. Since his Derby-eve injury, the colt worked out on May 21, May 27, and June 3, suggesting that he is now healthy and raring to go.With a series of prior winnings in stake races, Forte is certainly worth a wager. Then again, like a presidential front runner with formidable polling numbers who is indicted for violating the espionage act, Forte — and even more so his hall of famer trainer, Todd Pletcher — may turn off some bettors. Last year the colt won the Hopeful Stakes, a September 5 contest at Saratoga in upstate New York. Yet, the victory, and the $165,000 purse, were taken away after the then 2-year-old tested positive for meloxicam, an illegal nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug. Months later, on May 11, Mr. Pletcher was suspended for 10 days, and fined $1,000. The suspension, curiously, was announced after Forte was scratched from the Derby — and after veterinarians ruled that due to his hoof inflammation, he would be ineligible for the triple crown’s second leg, the Preakness at Baltimore’s Pimlico track. Has Mr. Pletcher gotten away with merely a slap on the wrist? Perhaps so. In the political horse race, only one winner emerges. Handicapping real horses provides several betting options — win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, and so on. Unlike the pre-Iowa field, Saturday’s nine-horse race could reward exotic bettors as well as just those who bet the winner. So here are some tips. “I like Hit Show in the Belmont Stakes,” a much-followed handicapper, Andy Serling, says in his widely watched videotaped analysis. Mr. Serling tends to favor “value” betting that usually leans toward longer odds. Currently at 10-1, the Brad Cox-trained Hit Show is a stalker, or mid race-runner, which makes him a good fit for the Belmont Stake’s 12-furlong run, measuring a mile and a half. Our personal Belmont guru, Michael Minogue, is a notorious late bettor, making his choices at the very last moment before the windows close. His initial Friday instinct, which could change quickly, is to place an exacta bet on Forte and National Treasure.Fast starters like National Treasure, currently at 5-1 odds, tend to maintain the lead at Belmont. One asterisk: His trainer, Bob Baffert, has a checkered past, including suspensions in Kentucky and New York. Mr. Minogue’s exacta — a bet predicting the top two finishers — is nevertheless a worthy wager. He also has his “value” idea: a win bet on a 20-1 long shot trained by Mr. Cox, Tapit Shoes.Another horse to watch is the unpredictable Arcangelo, who won the Peter Pan race, which is often a Belmont precursor. Although the 8-1 Arcangelo won little else, handicappers see him as the one horse who could emerge as a future star. He is trained by Jena Antonucci, so if you are rooting for the first woman to win a triple crown race, this is your bet.Final recommendation: an exacta on Arcangelo and Forte. At the window, ask for an exacta and the three and six, and don’t forget to box it. Then ignore all that ugly horse racing underbelly, forget politics, get excited Saturday evening instead, and walk away a winner.

The Belmont: As With Politics, Horse Handicapping Becomes Easier as Field Thins

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