Biden, Trump Tied in General Election Horse Race: Poll

A new survey suggests that presidents Biden and Trump are tied in the general election horse race, with Mr. Biden leading among independents.The survey from the New York Times and Siena College found that Messrs. Biden and Trump both enjoy 43 percent support if a hypothetical election were held today. Another 4 percent of respondents said they would vote for a different candidate, and 6 percent said they would not vote for either. Four percent said that they “don’t know” who they would vote for or refused to answer the question.These results represent a slight increase in support for Mr. Biden since the Times’s October poll just before the midterms, which found that Mr. Biden enjoyed 42 percent support to Mr. Trump’s 43 percent support.In terms of partisan support, Mr. Trump enjoys the backing of 7 percent of self-identified Democrats, 89 percent of self-identified Republicans, and 37 percent of independents. Mr. Biden is supported by 83 percent of self-identified Democrats, 5 percent of self-identified Republicans, and 42 percent of independents.Among independents, third-party voters, and those who “don’t know” which party they back, 40 percent said that they were leaning toward the Democratic Party, 41 percent said the same of the Republican Party, and 20 percent said they “don’t know” or refused to answer the question.A political scientist at John Jay College, Brian Arbour, tells the Sun that this group of independents who say they don’t lean either way — so-called double haters — were key voters in the last two presidential elections.“There was a large group of people in both 2016 and 2020 who didn’t like either candidate,” Mr. Arbour says. “There’s every reason to think that they’ll be a key swing group in 2024.”The new survey comes as the 2024 election appears to be heading toward a rematch of 2020. In the 2020 election, independents were a key bloc that delivered the victory to Mr. Biden, and because of this, their opinions have been watched closely.Mr. Biden’s lead among independents is smaller than it was in the 2020 election. According to the survey, 41 percent of respondents that identify as independents voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and 31 percent voted for Mr. Trump.Mr. Arbour says he believes that Mr. Biden’s lower support among these groups is mostly a “judgment on Biden” relating to the economy and his age.“It’s consistent with the fact that Biden’s not doing as well in the polls as he was at this point in 2019,” Mr. Arbour says. “As I look ahead, there’s reason to think that Biden is likely to win some of these voters back because the economy seems to be improving, and the closer we get to 2024, the more focus there will be.”In terms of Mr. Trump’s legal issues, a majority of respondents, 51 percent, report believing that Mr. Trump has “committed serious federal crimes,” while 35 percent say he has “not committed serious federal crimes.” Another 14 percent didn’t express an opinion.Also working against Mr. Trump are Americans’ opinions regarding his moves following the 2020 election. Most respondents, 53 percent, said his actions “went so far that he threatened American democracy.”Another 39 percent of respondents said that Mr. Trump was “just exercising his right to contest the election.” An additional 8 percent of respondents didn’t express an opinion on the topic.

Biden, Trump Tied in General Election Horse Race: Poll

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