With West Virginia’s governor promising to decide whether he will run for Senator Manchin’s seat by the end of February, a committee closely associated with Minority Leader McConnell is giving Governor Justice a push with a new poll showing he is the favorite to win.

The poll from the Senate Leadership Fund and conducted by the Tarrance Group found that Mr. Justice is the only Republican who could beat Mr. Manchin in a general election — and that he would defeat him in a landslide.

The survey suggests that the matchup would break in favor of Mr. Justice by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent. It also found that Mr. Justice would “dominate” the primary field with 53 percent of the vote.

The other potential candidates mentioned in the poll, Representative Alex Mooney and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, would lose to Mr. Manchin by 15 points and 10 points, respectively.

There was some good news for Mr. Manchin, though, as the survey found that he would drastically increase his margin over his 2018 opponent, Mr. Morrisey, whom he beat by 3.6 points in the final tally.

Mr. Justice, in a move demonstrating that the poll is on his mind, tweeted a Politico article linking to it and touting findings that read “the strongest Republican candidate,” and, “Only one that would beat the incumbent.”

The new polling could be the push Mr. Justice needs to make the decision to run. He told the Wheeling television station WTRF earlier this month that he was leaning toward a run. 

“I’ve given a lot of thought and I’m still very, very, very seriously considering it,” Mr. Justice said. “In fact, I’m probably leaning that way.”

The matchup is also on Mr. Manchin’s mind, and though he has not officially decided whether he will run, he said in an interview with NBC in early February he wants a “clean” campaign “without personal or negative attacks.”

“When all is said and done, the smoke clears, you still have that personal relationship and friendship you want to make sure you continue,” Mr. Manchin said.

When Mr. Justice took office in 2017 he was a Democrat. He had switched party affiliation in early 2015 to Democrat from Republican to run for governor, and switched back to Republican in 2017 to support President Trump.

During his time as a Democrat, Mr. Justice found a powerful political ally in Mr. Manchin, who supported his election. The partnership, however, did not last long after Mr. Justice switched parties.

Within a year of leaving the party, Mr. Justice was already leveling personal attacks against Mr. Manchin, accusing him of corruption and influence peddling.

“Literally, Joe Manchin is selling his influence and making money,” Mr. Justice said at a 2021 press conference. “Joe Manchin has been a politician forever, yet he is a rich man. How could that possibly be?”

Mr. Manchin fired back, saying in a press release addressing the comments, “Policy differences do not justify personal attacks; I want to work with Governor Justice in the best interest of our state.”

Mr. Justice later went on to claim that he had defeated a Manchin-endorsed candidate in 2020 and would defeat Mr. Manchin if the two were to run against each other.

“For all practical purposes I ran against him in the last election and won every single county in the state,” Mr. Justice said.

With the years of personal history between the two giants of West Virginia politics, Mr. Justice’s reputation for colorful political antics, and a possible Senate majority on the line, there’s no doubt that a Justice-Manchin race would be one of the marquee contests of 2024.