Japan’s Forever Young Dominates Dubai Derby. Next Stop: Churchill Downs?
Historically, Japanese horses have struggled to compete in the Kentucky Derby for a myriad of reasons, including the impact of travel and the quality of jockeys and horses.
Forever Young, a dynamic Japanese-born racehorse, is among the early favorites to win the prestigious 150th Kentucky Derby after dominating the $1 million U.A.E. Derby (G2) in Dubai on Saturday.
Trained by the popular Yoshito Yahagi and owned by Susumu Fujita, Forever Young is arguably the first Japanese horse with a legitimate chance of winning the Run for the Roses on May 4. The 3-year-old remained unbeaten in five starts and easily won the U.A.E. Derby by two lengths to capture 100 points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase.
Next stop, Churchill Downs.
“Of course, it will be very difficult to manage the horse’s condition from Dubai to Kentucky,” Mr. Yahagi said through an interpreter in Dubai. “But I really believe my team will be able to get him in good order.”
Historically, Japanese horses have struggled to compete in the Kentucky Derby for a myriad of reasons, including the impact of travel and the quality of jockeys and horses. Japanese runners are 0-for-19 in the Kentucky Derby, with no finish better than fifth, according to Ron Flatter of Horse Racing Nation.
Even the hype around Forever Young has been tempered since February 24 when he overcame a bad start and ran wide the entire race to barely capture the Saudi Derby (G3) by a nose over an American speedhorse, Book’em Danno.
His performance in Dubai was much more impressive. Jockey Ryusei Sakai pushed Forever Young to fifth early on the fast dirt track then dominated the stretch, pulling away to the finish. He covered the 1 3/16 miles in 1:57.89 despite starting from out of the 11th gate. “He improved and he has so much potential,” Mr. Yahagi said. “I always have a lot of confidence in him.”
Mr. Yahagi is an important figure in Japan’s push for prominence in international horse racing. He revealed just before the race that he received news that his father had passed away. “My teacher, mentor, and father passed away this morning and I want to dedicate this win to him,” Mr. Yahagi told the press in Dubai.
Forever Young, son of 2016 Dubai Turf Japanese legend Real Steel and the Congrats mare Forever Darling, is the third straight horse from Japan to win the U.A.E. Derby. Runner-up Auto Bahn earned 50 points. Pandagate banked 25 for third, and Mendelssohn Bay 10 points for fourth.
The U.A.E. Derby (G2) is the only international race in the Churchill Downs Road to the Kentucky Derby series. Its winners have traditionally not fared well in the Kentucky Derby, which could impact Forever Young’s odds heading into the race.
Some might still question whether the hype around Forever Young is valid. His winning time on Saturday was slower than 2023 U.A.E. Derby winner Derma Sotogake (1:55.81), who finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby last year.
“This horse is yet to be beaten,” Mr. Sakai said. “I feel he’s the champion 3-year-old in Japan. I will do everything to prepare for Kentucky.”
Fierceness, an even-money favorite, scored an impressive victory at the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream on Saturday. He currently leads the points standings, with 136, and may emerge as the betting favorite in May. Long-shots Catalytic (25-1) finished second for 50 points, and Grand Mo the First (21-1) was third for 25 points. Conquest Warrior (5-2) and Hades (3-1) claimed 15 and 10 points respectively. “It’s a special, special horse and we’re going to Kentucky as the Kentucky Derby favorite,” Fierceness owner Mike Repole said at Gulfstream.
Trainer Bob Baffert won his fifth Arkansas Derby on Saturday, but his horse Muth is ineligible to run in the Kentucky Derby because Mr. Baffert is suspended by Churchill Downs. Muth outran favorite Timberlake, winning by three lengths at Oaklawn, but the 100 points for the victory were vacated due to Mr. Baffet’s suspension starting in 2021 when Medina Spirit failed a post-race drug test after winning the Kentucky Derby.
Just Steel (32-1) gets 50 points for finishing second, and Mystik Dan (4-1) earned 25 points for third. Timberlake (1-1) dropped to fourth, settling for 15 points, while fifth-place finisher Informed Patriot (69-1) earned 10 points.
On April 1, the Wood Memorial (G2), the Blue Grass (G1), and the Santa Anita Derby (G1) will also award 200 points to the top five finishes. Sierra Leone and Dornoch are horses to watch in the Blue Grass.The points prep continues until April 13, with the Lexington (G3) worth 42 total points. Japan is assured of at least two horses in the Derby. T O Password topped the point system to determine the one Japanese entry into the Kentucky Derby. If T O Password declines the invitation, Ramjet will get the invite.
