Lagging in the Polls Nationally and in Other Battleground States, President Biden Sees an Opening in North Carolina

Lagging in the polls nationally at home and abroad, President Biden is hoping to expand his electoral college map in one of the only states where he may have an opening: North Carolina. Strong fundraising, new leadership at the state Democratic Party, and a high-profile governor’s race could help the president flip a 2020 Trump-won state into his column. Mr. Biden swung through the state Thursday, touting his infrastructure investments and delivering remarks at an event honoring police officers killed and wounded in the line of duty. That came just weeks after he attended a rally with the Democratic governor to highlight lowering the costs of prescription drugs. Combined, the president and Vice President Harris have made dozens of visits to the state to talk about infrastructure, healthcare, and abortion since the 2020 election. Mr. Biden hopes to flip the state this fall after narrowly losing it three years ago to President Trump. That year, Mr. Biden won 48.6 percent of the vote to Mr. Trump’s 49.9 percent — a difference of less than 75,000 votes out of nearly 5.5 million cast. Mr. Biden came closer to winning the state in terms of percentage and raw vote total margin than both Secretary Clinton in 2016 and President Obama in 2012. Compared to states like Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan, where Mr. Biden is slipping in the polls against Mr. Trump, he has remained competitive in the North Carolina surveys. An April 30 Emerson College poll found that Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by five points in the state, while a Quinnipiac poll from April 10 found Mr. Trump leads by two points — inside the margin of error. The presidential race in the Tar Heel State could be made even more competitive thanks to what will likely be the most-watched governor’s race in the country this year. The Democratic state attorney general, Josh Stein, is facing off against the bombastic and controversial lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson. Mr. Robinson — who is the first Black lieutenant governor in the state and has a penchant for giving his most controversial speeches from a pulpit — made a name for himself as an anti-gun control and anti-abortion activist in the state in 2018. He won the lieutenant governorship in 2020 and easily became the GOP nominee for governor this year. Democrats have been able to raise in the past plenty of money off his statements, which have included questioning both the September 11 attacks and the Kennedy assassination, calling gay and transgender people “filth,” yearning for the days when women couldn’t vote, and calling Beyoncé’s music nothing more than “devil worshiping.”The race between Messrs. Stein and Robinson has so far been highly competitive. One Emerson College poll released on Tuesday found that Mr. Robinson led his Democratic opponent by one point — 42 percent to 41 percent.Mr. Robinson’s nomination as the GOP candidate for governor is likely to boost the Biden campaign come November, one longtime lawmaker tells the Sun. David Price, who represented North Carolina in the House for more than 30 years and retired in 2023, says Mr. Biden has “a really good shot” at winning the state this fall thanks, in part, to the Republican gubernatorial candidate. Even though Mr. Robinson, a compelling speaker from the pulpit and a fierce Christian, would be the first Black governor of the state, Mr. Price — who is a trained political scientist and professor at Duke University — says his potential support among Black voters does not seem to be much different than that for other Republican candidates. “The penetration among Black males is not very great,” Mr. Price says of Mr. Robinson’s chances of improving among Black voters. He added, though, that he “would worry about it” regardless if he was working for the Biden or Jill Stein campaigns. “Male Hispanic and Black voters — especially from conservative religious backgrounds — have probably some susceptibility to Republican appeals. I think we’re really going to have to solidify those base voters,” Mr. Price says. “Robinson, though, has some unique liabilities apart from the racial considerations.”The state Democratic Party has been reinvigorated in the last year thanks, in part, to new leadership. The state party chairwoman, Anderson Clayton, is just 26 years old and was elected to her position in 2023. Ms. Clayton told National Public Radio she is putting a special focus on engaging with and winning over voters in rural areas like the one where she grew up. She’s a native of Roxboro near the Virginia border, which has a population of just 8,000. “I was angry” at the Democratic Party, she said. “I was angry that it was ignoring places like where I’d grown up.”The North Carolina Republican Party, meanwhile, has suffered some setbacks in recent months. In April, the state GOP posted low fundraising numbers compared to the more energized Democratic outfit. So far this election cycle, state Republicans have raised $3.3 million compared to the Democrats who have raised $5.2 million. According to the most recent campaign finance reports from February, the GOP had less than $900,000 in its campaign war chest, while Democrats had more than $2.4 million. The chairman of the Lee County GOP, Jim Womack, told public radio station WUNC that donors are sitting on the sidelines because his party has failed to lay out a clear vision for the future. “Fundraising is anemic in our state party,” Mr. Womack told the outlet. “We’ve got some really talented people working on it, but we really haven’t delivered the value proposition to the donors.”“I know way too many donors that are on the sidelines right now that are not giving to the Republican Party, because they don’t trust its leadership,” Mr. Womack continued. “They don’t trust that we’re going to be any different than the Democrats.”Democrats are confident that abortion rights will play a major role in their advantage in this year’s elections, from the presidential race to the gubernatorial election to state legislative contests. In 2022, Republicans won a supermajority in the state senate but came one seat short of winning one in the state house, which would have allowed the legislature to pass legislation and override the Democratic governor’s veto. A Democratic state representative, Tricia Cotham, switched her registration to the GOP in 2023, giving Republicans that veto-proof majority. Her switch allowed the GOP to pass a 12-week abortion ban over Governor Cooper’s objections. Mr. Cooper, who holds a 51 percent approval rating and a 39 percent disapproval rating, won the governorship in 2016 and was re-elected in 2020 — while appearing on the same ballot as Mr. Trump. He told the Independent that the 12-week abortion ban is going to boomerang on the Republicans this year in elections at every level. “There’s an effective ban in the entire southeast, now that we have the Florida situation, and obviously North Carolina has a 12-week ban, but it’s very burdensome on women because of the requirement of an in-person appointment before you can get the healthcare that you need,” Mr. Cooper told the Independent.

Lagging in the Polls Nationally and in Other Battleground States, President Biden Sees an Opening in North Carolina

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