The next metric on which to focus in the Republican primary is the “the number to deny.” So far the news stories have been focusing on the number needed to win the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican convention. Donald Trump, according to Real Clear Politics, needs 498 more delegates to reach the winning 1,237. The denial number focuses not on the number needed by Mr. Trump but the number needed to deny him the nomination on the first round.

There are about 755 “bound” delegates at stake in remaining contests. That suggests the “denial number,” the number of delegates which someone else must win to reduce Mr. Trump to one short of what he needs, is 258. At this point, “someone else” is Senator Cruz, the only realistic alternative, at least in the primaries, to Mr. Trump.

The Texan faces two challenges. First, most observers believe he will have trouble in the remaining contests in the Northeast, where a large number of the remaining bound delegates are at stake. The second is that Ohio Governor Kasich’s quixotic quest divides the anti-Trump vote. Mr. Kasich cannot win. He needs 1,094 more delegates with only 755 remaining. Save for his home, he hasn’t won a single state. After nearly 40 contests, he has finished last more times than he’s finished second.

Mr. Kasich is hearing almost universal calls for him to bow out. Defiantly, he argues that only now is the battle moving to friendly territory. He says he can do better than Mr. Cruz in moderate northeastern states. Therefore, he claims, he is the best Trump-trumper. In theory, this ought to resolve Mr. Cruz’s twin challenges. Yet Mr. Kasich isn’t walking his own talk. He’s campaigning in Wisconsin, where all current polls show him a distant third and Mr. Cruz leading Mr. Trump — and where Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is expected to endorse the Texan.

What is that about? Mr. Kasich doesn’t belong in Wisconsin, where he is a Trump-enabler, not a Trump-stopper. The Emerson poll says “It appears that Kasich is pulling votes from Cruz as Kasich supporters find Cruz more favorable than Trump, 36% to 27%.” If Mr. Kasich wants to keep his own chances open, it would be more logical for him to close shop in Wisconsin immediately and head east, where his own argument says he can be most effective stopping The Donald.

In the “denial” analysis, there are four states where Mr. Cruz should be considered the likely winner, Wisconsin (especially if Mr. Kasich heads east), Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota, all winner-takes-all states with a combined 134 delegates. Crediting them to the Texan, the “denial number” drops to 124. And the “percentage to deny” drops to just 20% (124 as a percent of the otherwise remaining 621 bound delegates). These ought to be achievable numbers, 124 and 20%.

In the east, Mr. Kasich’s advisers have singled out Pennsylvania as a place where he’ll claim victory. The claim is plausible: it is Governor Kasich’s neighboring state and, in the only recent poll, he’s only 3 points off the lead – that’s within the margin of error. Let’s presume the Ohioan listens to himself – he should be able to do that – and devotes all his relatively meager resources to this state and pulls off a win. That would deny Mr. Trump 17 bound delegates (the other 54 are officially “unbound”), dropping the “denial number” to 107 and the “denial percentage” to a mere 18% of the otherwise-remaining 604 bound delegates.

There are 272 bound delegates up for grabs in the remaining proportional contests. Between Messrs. Cruz and Kasich, they should be able to claim 107, or 40% of them. Another 288 delegates would then remain in other winner-takes-all contests, a safety margin, if there is such a thing in politics.

Psychology matters. Wisconsin is the next contest and the only one on Tuesday April 5th. A Cruz win would be the day’s only news, which would train the spotlight on a big defeat for the guy who always wins.

Pennsylvania is the biggest of five contests on April 26. It will be the big prime-time story of the night. To lose the popular vote in such a huge state would be another crushing defeat for that guy who always wins. Moreover, a Kasich win in the Keystone State would be especially important as an offset to Mr. Trump’s almost inevitable win a week earlier in the proportional contest at New York.

Realistically, if Mr. Kasich doesn’t win Pennsylvania, his campaign will be dead and his entire effort and reputation will be colored permanently with all the pejoratives currently being leveled – quixotic, vain, crazy, self-aggrandizing, etc. His campaign may succumb to these characterizations even beforehand if he isn’t seen as refocusing his efforts on the one contest where his odds are good.

At present, the Ohioan is attempting a triple bank shot from behind the eight ball. He is trying both to deny The Donald and the Texan and to undermine the case for Senator Cruz as the alternative to the New Yorker at an “open” convention — while advancing his own chances. It is an impossible shot.

RTJahncke@Gmail.com. @RedJahncke