Nevada’s Adam Laxalt Edging Up in the Polls, on the Basis of Actual Experience in Government

As one of the few new GOP U.S. Senate nominees with experience in government, Nevada’s attorney general, Adam Laxalt, offers a glimpse into the sort of prospects Republicans could have been looking at in 2022.From Reno in the northwest, Mr. Laxalt will be facing off against Senator Cortez Masto, the Democratic incumbent, from Las Vegas in the more populous southern portion of the state.Mr. Laxalt, in his bid to become the senator from Nevada, is looking to take up the torch of his father, Senator Domenici, and his grandfather, Senator Paul Laxalt, who were both forces in Nevada politics.Although Nevada has had a fairly conservative history, Democrats have swept the state in recent years, winning both Senate seats and the governor’s office alongside every presidential election since 2008.Recent Democratic successes in the state can be attributed in no small part to the late Harry Reid, a longtime senator who died in December 2021, and who was a bulwark for Democrats in the state. This year will be a test of how Democrats fare without him.For most of the campaign season, it has looked as if Senator Cortez Masto would be able to eke out a win in this new political environment. In the past few weeks, though, Mr. Laxalt has been climbing in the polls.Mr. Laxalt says that the polls are catching up with how Nevadans feel about inflation, crime, and immigration as well as a general souring on the “Biden/Cortez Masto agenda.”“These polls capture what we are seeing on the ground here in Nevada. Between surging inflation, rising violent crime, the effects of an open border, and record-high gas prices,” Mr. Laxalt said in a statement.At this point, these topics are all tried and true Republican talking points for this year. What separates Mr. Laxalt from the pack is that, unlike many GOP nominees for Senate, he has solid experience in government.A political strategist, Rory McShane, is more bullish than most of the forecasters on Mr. Laxalt’s odds going into November, saying he expects the attorney general’s record to push him to victory.“If Adam wins it’s going to be on his successful record as attorney general and conservative policies he supports,” he tells the Sun. “If the election were held today I think Adam would win.”In a different state, Mr. Laxalt’s family history may have helped him at the polls. Given that many Nevadans are new to the state, though, Mr. McShane thinks that most voters won’t even be aware of it.Mr. Laxalt’s most notable action as attorney general is the establishment of Nevada’s Federalism Unit, created to “protect the interest of Nevadans” and to challenge “unlawful federal overreach,” according to the attorney general’s office.While Mr. Laxalt’s experience as attorney general certainly helps — his lack of experience dogged his 2014 campaign for attorney general — his experience on the campaign trail sets him apart from the crowd.Mr. Laxalt has largely avoided the pitfalls crimping Republican candidates in states like Georgia or Pennsylvania, whose campaigns have lacked the savvy brought by an experienced politician. An associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal ball, Miles Coleman, describes Mr. Laxalt as a “decent” but not a “great” candidate, citing his loss in the 2018 gubernatorial race.However, in 2022’s political environment, when even the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, is griping about candidate quality, any candidate without a specific shortcoming stands out from the pack. In Mr. Coleman’s assessment, Mr. Laxalt is essentially a “generic Republican,” a reference to generic ballot polling that asks voters which party they prefer without a candidate attached.In this way he could be a glimpse into where Republican strategy centering on inflation, immigration, and President Biden could have landed the party this year.Mr. McShane suspects it will be enough to win Nevada, seeing as the state has been more heavily affected by inflation and high gas prices than most, even though forecasters like Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the state as a toss-up with a slight edge for Ms. Cortez Masto.One potential chink in the armor, as Mr. McShane assesses Mr. Laxalt, is the prevalence of the abortion issue in this year’s election. “Democrats’ entire goal is to make this entire election about abortion,” he says. “Democrats have been running abortion ads back to back to back to back — I think that it worried voters.”Since the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, abortion has featured heavily in messaging from Ms. Cortez Masto’s campaign, which is trying to paint Mr. Laxalt as “an automatic vote” for a nationwide ban on abortions.“As attorney general, Laxalt pushed for strict abortion bans across the country and even worked to restrict birth control access,” a campaign spokesman, Josh Marcus-Blank, says.

Nevada’s Adam Laxalt Edging Up in the Polls, on the Basis of Actual Experience in Government

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