Senate Races Tighten Up as Election Day Approaches

With just under two months until election day, Republican efforts in some Senate races show glimpses of hope even as other campaigns seem to be falling behind in the heat of the race.Though it hasn’t received as much attention as other races, the battle for the Senate in North Carolina is quietly becoming one of the most competitive.Emily’s List and WomenVoteProject just dropped a $2.7 million ad buy in the state this week, attacking Republican Senate hopeful, Congressman Ted Budd, in North Carolina for his stance on abortion.The chief justice of North Carolina’s supreme court and Democratic Senate candidate, Cheri Beasley, appears to be neck-in-neck with Mr. Budd, with RealClearPolitics giving Mr. Budd only a half-point edge on average.The new ad attacks Mr. Budd for his roll in writing legislation that would ban abortion across America without exception for rape or incest while touting Ms. Beasly as a choice who would protect abortion rights.The ad follows big investments in the state by Republicans, particularly the Senate Leadership Fund, which has spent some $27.6 million in the state, the third most of any state.So far, the fund has spent the most in Georgia — $37.1 million — on another race that is tightening up in the polls.Football star and Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker is closing the gap on incumbent Democratic Senator Warnock. The race continues to be rated as a tossup by forecasters.At the beginning of August, a Research Affiliates poll showed Mr. Warnock three points ahead of Mr. Walker. This week, an InsiderAdvantage poll showed Mr. Walker leading Mr. Warnock by three points.To the north, the Senate race in Wisconsin is starting to look up for the GOP as well, with Senator Johnson closing the polling gap on Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, who came out of the primaries there with a shocking seven-point lead according to Marquette University Law School polling.Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, found Mr. Johnson only two points behind Mr. Barnes in recent weeks, with the candidates carrying 47 percent and 49 percent of the vote respectively.While a few races show signs of Republicans building momentum going into the election, there are still some problem areas for the GOP.For one, the party is trailing in the generic ballot by more than it has since November of 2021, with Democrats climbing to 45 percent support in the generic ballot as opposed to the Republicans’ 43.7 percent, as tracked by FiveThirtyEight. There are other races where Republicans appear to be becoming less competitive, such as Ohio, where Congressman Tim Ryan seems to be breaking away from the Republican nominee, venture capitalist J.D. Vance.A September 5 poll from the Center Street PAC, a conservative political action committee, shows Mr. Ryan nine points ahead of Mr. Vance. Mr. Ryan is now riding high after calling for “generational” change in Democratic leadership.Another GOP candidate backed by venture capitalist Peter Thiel, Blake Masters, seems to be treading water in Arizona. RealClearPolitics puts Senator Kelly an average of five points ahead of Mr. Masters in the race.While Mr. Kelly appears to have lost some support since the primary, Mr. Masters is struggling to break 45 percent support across the state.In Pennsylvania, things look similarly dire for the GOP, with Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman maintaining a healthy lead over the Republican nominee, Dr. Mehmet Oz.A recent poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania by Emerson College found that Mr. Fetterman enjoys a four-point lead over Dr. Oz, though the average of polling shows a margin about double that.

Senate Races Tighten Up as Election Day Approaches

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