Possible Climate Harm to City Detailed
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A group of scientists today will release a report detailing how the changing climate could hurt New York’s marine fisheries, agriculture, and winter recreation, among other things.
The Union of Concerned Scientists completed the report as a follow-up to a report it released in 2006, “Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast,” which showed how the region’s winters could be 8 to 12 degrees warmer by the year 2100 if greenhouse emissions continue to grow. The warming would lead to greater rainfall and cut the winter snow season in half, the report found.
Today’s report will further show the projected impacts of two scenarios outlined in the 2006 study: higher emissions, which is based on the world economy relying on fossil fuels for growth, and lower emissions, which posits an increasing reliance on cleaner fuels.
The breakdown allows citizens and policy makers to see that they can have an impact on future problems for the region’s economy and health, an author and professor of public health at Columbia University, Patrick Kinney, said.
Under the 2006 report’s lower emissions scenario, for instance, the length of the snow season would be cut by a quarter rather than by half, and the average temperature would increase between 5 and 7.5 degrees.
“It shows how, if we started doing things to address the problem, we could have an impact,” Mr. Kinney said. “It is a reasonably achievable goal.”
Today’s report will specifically look at how the warming climate would affect coastal areas, fisheries, forests, agriculture, winter recreation, and human health. A spokeswoman for the Union of Concerned Scientists, Emily Robinson, said the report includes proposals on how to mitigate the effects.
A researcher at Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research, Vivien Gornitz, said there is concern about the fate of low-lying cities around the world, including New York. “Especially with all the heavy construction and development along our shorelines, that’s a matter of concern,” Ms. Gornitz said.
A Columbia University study completed in 2001 found that elevated sea levels would increase the frequency of flooding during major storms in the region, a consequence that could bring the subways to a standstill.
Among the speakers scheduled to attend the release of the report this morning are the commissioner of the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation, Pete Grannis, and the city’s director of long term planning and stability, Rohit Aggrawala.